"We Are Ready" (or not)

When Nancy Pelosi predicted that the Democrats would hold on to the House through 2012, there were understandable guffaws on both sides of the aisle.  Claiming that "we are ready ... and in the past when there [have] been these swings, it's been when people have not been ready," Pelosi seems to believe that readiness is enough.  I wonder what she'll make of the radical swing reflected in today's publication of Gallup's weekly polling, that gives Republicans a major jump to +6% over Democrats, the largest Republican margin ever recorded for Gallup. The enthusiasm gap between the two parties also continued to grow, indicating possible deep problems for Democrats get-out-the-vote drives.  The Gallup polling played a major role in once again flipping the RCP Generic Congressional Vote average to +0.8 for the Republicans (from +0.2 for the Democrats the day before).  Rasmussen's likely voter screen gives the Republicans a +7 average, while the Quinnipiac poll (last published May 26) give the Democrats +6.  The RCP Congressional Job Approval average is telling: -50.6, with all recent major polls giving Congress a -40 or greater.  Keep your head in the sand Nancy - it might improve your outlook.

FINAL UPDATES: Election Day Special on the Florida's Special Election

UPDATE 2: There will be no change in party affiliation for FL-19.  As of 8:56 PM, Ted Deutch has won by 64.75% to Lynch's 32.64% and McCormick's 2.55%.  A write-in candidate, Josue Larose obtained .06% of the total vote.  24,854 votes have been counted.  These numbers are not too likely to alter significantly since most precincts have reported in.  Where the national will move to in November remains a serious hobby of prognosticators.  One interesting facet of today's special election is that the voters get a 'try-out' period with the winner.  Because Wexler resigned mid-term, Deutch will serve until November, and must then win a regular election.  Depending on the mood of the electorate by that time, Lynch may get a second shot.  One potential indicator is the very low voter turnout, which was under 20% (strangely, the elections office considers this turnout to be high).

UPDATE 1: Voting has remained very light throughout the day, and may be exceeded in rate by the early and absentee voting.  Polls close at 7:00 PM.

Here in Florida's 19th Congressional District, we'll be electing a replacement for the unlamented Robert Wexler.  Ted Deutch is running for the Dems, Edward Lynch for the Republicans, and Jim McCormick is running as an independent under the People Before Party moniker.  McCormick may syphon off some votes from Lynch, which Deutch is no doubt counting on.  Despite a very limited budget and personal financial woes, the anger over Obamacare and the bailouts, in this reliably blue district, may propel Lynch to the forefront.  So far, voting appears relatively light throughout the county, and Lynch has the advantage of a healthy volunteer corps (driving throughout the county I've seen plenty of happy Lynch supporters and signs, but almost nothing for Deutch).  Lynch has also been relying on cheap and free media, and has a number of internet campaigns running under volunteer control.  Turning over the self-proclaimed 'fire-breathing liberal's' seat to a Republican would be quite a coup for conservatives, and a possible sign of a coming blood-bath in November.

The Lines Have Crossed

For the first time in his presidency, and even more precipitously than Bill Clinton, President Obama's RCP average (a running average of major polls) has dropped into negative territory. The approve vs. disapprove lines have crossed, and he is down to -0.2.

President Obama Job Approval

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	Approve	Disapprove	Spread
RCP Average	3/3 - 3/18	--	47.5	47.7	-0.2
Gallup	3/16 - 3/18	1547 A	47	47	Tie
Rasmussen Reports	3/16 - 3/18	1500 LV	45	55	-10
FOX News	3/16 - 3/17	900 RV	46	48	-2
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl	3/11 - 3/14	1000 A	48	47	+1
Pew Research	3/10 - 3/14	1500 A	46	43	+3
Associated Press/GfK	3/3 - 3/8	1002 A	53	46	+7

See All President Obama Job Approval Polling Data

As the Los Angeles Times sarcastically noted, this dip could be due to many things, but is most likely connected to the president's obsession with passing a HC bill, any bill, by any means. Interestingly, the RCP Average will probably drop further tomorrow, after today's Gallup Poll results are included. The Gallup Poll reflected in today's RCP Average has an approval tie, but today's Gallup has the president down by -2.

Today's RCP Average also has the general Republican brand up to +1.6 over the Democrats. It looks more and more likely that November will bring a bloodbath.

Tomorrow: a closer look at the recent CBO scoring.

They're Baaaaaack!

.... and so is the ModCon - just in time for the MA senatorial election. The next person to hold one of the two senatorial seats in Massachuetts will be decided within the hour, bickering not withstanding. While the DNC may be hoping against hope, much of the country is deciding that hope and change lie in different direction than envisioned by the administration. Should Scott Brown (the Republican candidate) win, much of the focus from the left will be on who to blame, while many on the right will focus on resurgence (even with a Brown loss).

But I think that we on the right need to focus on something else entirely. It's quite clear that, while turnout will be important in determining the outcome of the race, it is the turnout among independents that will be the most important. Lost in all the coverage is the blunt fact that the majority of voters in MA, while leaning left, are actually registered Independent. Independents are the ones who have really pushed the Brown campaign forward, and their ire has been raised against Republicans and Democrats alike. Independents were also largely responsible for Obama's win last year, and their dramatic shift away from he, and the Congressional leadership, can not necessarily be attributed to a sympathy with all things Republican. Republicans would do well to take as much of a lesson from the outcome of this election, whatever it may be, as Dems - failure to support economic revival and to protect the country will not be tolerated from anyone, regardless of party.

More will be posted as election results come in.

Senator Gregg gets a spine

NPR is reporting that Judd Gregg is withdrawing his name as the nominee as Secretary of Commerce, 'citing "irresolvable conflicts" with President Barack Obama's handling of the economic stimulus and 2010 census."' Sen. Gregg, we're proud of you.

In particular, the Senator has been known to be uncomfortable with the gigantic spending bill otherwise known as a stimulus, and abstained from the vote yesterday. Given the continued widespread opposition to the frivolous spending provisions in the bill, it's not surprising that any Republican would be concerned about taking on this particular position, but it's gratifying that the senator was willing to take a public stand.

Almost as important in the long run, is the power grab by the White House, which is attempting to move control of the census from Commerce to the White House. Some have speculated that part of this move was due to the nomination of Sen. Gregg to Commerce, but the White House has yet to make any announcement reversing its position.

Given the Gov. Richardson withdrew under a cloud last month, one wonders if President Obama will be able to fill this position anytime soon. Since he's now 'met' his promise of a bipartisan cabinet, he may feel no obligation to select another Republican.

Other People's Money

We are in the midst of an election, spread out over several weeks (counting early voting), where the debate about the nature and morality of taxation, wealth-creation, jobs-creation, and individual rights have become very stark. On the left, we have Sen. Obama, who proposes that spreading wealth from higher income brackets to lower is a patriotic duty. In addition to proposed tax giveaways (since 40% of recipients do not pay taxes to begin with), he proposes massive spending increases, all of which is to be balanced on higher taxes among the top 5% of earners in the country. I would argue that such a system would not only dramatically increase the deficit, pushing off payment by two generations, but would move us into a genuine welfare state, and prolong the recession (if not push us into a recession as Steve Forbes argues). In the center, we have Sen. McCain, who while (in my opinion) making too many concessions to populist impulses, resists tax increases, emphasizing instead spending cuts.

I'm a happy fiscal conservative - I strongly oppose what Pres. Bush and the former Republican Congress did to balloon the deficit, and expand government. But the trillion-plus dollar deficit facing us today is nothing compared to what will occur if Sen. Obama is elected and the Democrats have a super-majority in Congress. Rep. Franks made that abundantly clear in his interview on CNBC the other day (see my posting of two days ago for the video). He wants to take actions that will immediately increase deficit spending pushing us into the multi-trillion dollar range. He also strongly implied that this spending will be only partially offset by, you guessed it, higher taxes at increasingly lower brackets. We have had a relatively long period of growth in this country precisely by ridding ourselves of regressive taxation and spending schemes. Now we face the spending proposals of Sen. Obama and Congressional leaders, and it's clear that these increases can not be accomplished without dramatically increasing taxes within the middle-class brackets as well as the 5% proposed. Additionally, why should we be punishing those 5%. Shouldn't we make it easier for them to create jobs and wealth?

Neal Boortz made an excellent case in his article on RCP today for avoiding such 'tax-and-spend' policies, particularly when we're in a nasty recession. They destroy wealth, rather than create it, and they create a culture of dependency. Policies such as these are a disincentive to work, expansion, and investment. Sadly, the well-noted biases of the wider media make it difficult to get this message out. People are hurting. I have friends and family facing job and housing losses. These are painful times for many. But, pain is not a reason to shoot ourselves in the national head. Rather, we should be looking for national policies that allow for greater opportunity, wealth and job creation. The government should have the fiscal policies and discipline to create the environment, not manage the process. Finally, the government should not be burdening my future grandchildren with debt from welfare passed out today in the interest of buying an election and sewing up power. That's just not the hope we need.