01 June 2010
When Nancy Pelosi predicted that the Democrats would hold on to the House through 2012, there were understandable guffaws on both sides of the aisle. Claiming that "we are ready ... and in the past when there [have] been these swings, it's been when people have not been ready," Pelosi seems to believe that readiness is enough. I wonder what she'll make of the radical swing reflected in today's publication of Gallup's weekly polling, that gives Republicans a major jump to +6% over Democrats, the largest Republican margin ever recorded for Gallup. The enthusiasm gap between the two parties also continued to grow, indicating possible deep problems for Democrats get-out-the-vote drives. The Gallup polling played a major role in once again flipping the RCP Generic Congressional Vote average to +0.8 for the Republicans (from +0.2 for the Democrats the day before). Rasmussen's likely voter screen gives the Republicans a +7 average, while the Quinnipiac poll (last published May 26) give the Democrats +6. The RCP Congressional Job Approval average is telling: -50.6, with all recent major polls giving Congress a -40 or greater. Keep your head in the sand Nancy - it might improve your outlook.