FINAL UPDATES: Election Day Special on the Florida's Special Election

UPDATE 2: There will be no change in party affiliation for FL-19.  As of 8:56 PM, Ted Deutch has won by 64.75% to Lynch's 32.64% and McCormick's 2.55%.  A write-in candidate, Josue Larose obtained .06% of the total vote.  24,854 votes have been counted.  These numbers are not too likely to alter significantly since most precincts have reported in.  Where the national will move to in November remains a serious hobby of prognosticators.  One interesting facet of today's special election is that the voters get a 'try-out' period with the winner.  Because Wexler resigned mid-term, Deutch will serve until November, and must then win a regular election.  Depending on the mood of the electorate by that time, Lynch may get a second shot.  One potential indicator is the very low voter turnout, which was under 20% (strangely, the elections office considers this turnout to be high).

UPDATE 1: Voting has remained very light throughout the day, and may be exceeded in rate by the early and absentee voting.  Polls close at 7:00 PM.

Here in Florida's 19th Congressional District, we'll be electing a replacement for the unlamented Robert Wexler.  Ted Deutch is running for the Dems, Edward Lynch for the Republicans, and Jim McCormick is running as an independent under the People Before Party moniker.  McCormick may syphon off some votes from Lynch, which Deutch is no doubt counting on.  Despite a very limited budget and personal financial woes, the anger over Obamacare and the bailouts, in this reliably blue district, may propel Lynch to the forefront.  So far, voting appears relatively light throughout the county, and Lynch has the advantage of a healthy volunteer corps (driving throughout the county I've seen plenty of happy Lynch supporters and signs, but almost nothing for Deutch).  Lynch has also been relying on cheap and free media, and has a number of internet campaigns running under volunteer control.  Turning over the self-proclaimed 'fire-breathing liberal's' seat to a Republican would be quite a coup for conservatives, and a possible sign of a coming blood-bath in November.

Primary Results in Illinois and Florida

Lost in all the discussion over the Illinois primaries was the fact that Florida had a special primary for its 19th Congressional District yesterday. That cleared the way to elect a replacement for Rep. Wexler, who ostensibly retired to head up a think tank (the fact that he serially cheated on his wife, a la Edwards, and had no hope of re-election, of course had nothing to do with it). Despite the claims in this NPR story, the three GOP candidates have recently begun to rise in the polls against the potential Democratic challengers. Edward Lynch, who is well known among local GOP voters, won the Republican primary (Florida holds closed primaries), while Ted Deutch (a State Senator who also has high name recognition) won the Democratic primary. Florida's primary primary (it begged to be said) is August 24. At this point, Gov. Charlie Crist looks likely to lose the primary (to replace former Sen. Mel Martinez, who abruptly resigned last year) to State Representative Marco Rubio. Both men are polling well ahead of the main Democratic challenger, Kendrick Meek.

In Illinois, the most closely watched race was probably the primary for US Senate. Kirk won the Republican primary while Giannoulias won the Democratic primary. Kirk has an excellent reputation among state GOP voters, and in a state where just about every level of government is dominated by the Democratic party that has presided over multiple corruption scandals and failures, more conservative candidates have an excellent chance of picking off some key positions in November. The primary race to replace Blogo has yet to be called for either party.

The most recent RCP averages show polling trends generally swinging against the Democratic party, and in specific races, against the party establishment on both sides of the fence. I can't help but think this is healthy, both for the parties (which have become far too complacent and moribund) and for the country as a whole. It's going to be a fascinating election cycle to watch.