"We Are Ready" (or not)

When Nancy Pelosi predicted that the Democrats would hold on to the House through 2012, there were understandable guffaws on both sides of the aisle.  Claiming that "we are ready ... and in the past when there [have] been these swings, it's been when people have not been ready," Pelosi seems to believe that readiness is enough.  I wonder what she'll make of the radical swing reflected in today's publication of Gallup's weekly polling, that gives Republicans a major jump to +6% over Democrats, the largest Republican margin ever recorded for Gallup. The enthusiasm gap between the two parties also continued to grow, indicating possible deep problems for Democrats get-out-the-vote drives.  The Gallup polling played a major role in once again flipping the RCP Generic Congressional Vote average to +0.8 for the Republicans (from +0.2 for the Democrats the day before).  Rasmussen's likely voter screen gives the Republicans a +7 average, while the Quinnipiac poll (last published May 26) give the Democrats +6.  The RCP Congressional Job Approval average is telling: -50.6, with all recent major polls giving Congress a -40 or greater.  Keep your head in the sand Nancy - it might improve your outlook.

The Lines Have Crossed

For the first time in his presidency, and even more precipitously than Bill Clinton, President Obama's RCP average (a running average of major polls) has dropped into negative territory. The approve vs. disapprove lines have crossed, and he is down to -0.2.

President Obama Job Approval

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	Approve	Disapprove	Spread
RCP Average	3/3 - 3/18	--	47.5	47.7	-0.2
Gallup	3/16 - 3/18	1547 A	47	47	Tie
Rasmussen Reports	3/16 - 3/18	1500 LV	45	55	-10
FOX News	3/16 - 3/17	900 RV	46	48	-2
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl	3/11 - 3/14	1000 A	48	47	+1
Pew Research	3/10 - 3/14	1500 A	46	43	+3
Associated Press/GfK	3/3 - 3/8	1002 A	53	46	+7

See All President Obama Job Approval Polling Data

As the Los Angeles Times sarcastically noted, this dip could be due to many things, but is most likely connected to the president's obsession with passing a HC bill, any bill, by any means. Interestingly, the RCP Average will probably drop further tomorrow, after today's Gallup Poll results are included. The Gallup Poll reflected in today's RCP Average has an approval tie, but today's Gallup has the president down by -2.

Today's RCP Average also has the general Republican brand up to +1.6 over the Democrats. It looks more and more likely that November will bring a bloodbath.

Tomorrow: a closer look at the recent CBO scoring.