UPDATES: Mid-Term Elections 2010

UPDATE 9: The Denver Post has called the senate race for the Democrat, Michael Bennet over challenger Buck (R) by less than 1%.   Lisa Murkowski seems destined to make history as an NPA write-in candidate in Alaska, while Washington is still evenly split between Murray (D, incumbent) and Rossi (R) at 50:50.  Overall, there were 6 Senate pickups for the Republicans, with no Democratic gains.  The GOP now stands at a 61 seat pickup in the House, with ten races left undecided as of this afternoon.  Of those, seven of the races have the Republican candidate tied with or leading the Democratic candidate.  The House indeed experienced a tsunami of epic proportions.  The last time a race broke this far for the Republican party was in the 1930s.

The state legislature and governors' races were he most interesting to watch.  The GOP picked up 6 governorships, while the DNC lost 7 (Rhode Island went to newly independent Lincoln Chafe).  Sean Trende has the analysis of the state legislatures here.  The Republicans will now control redistricting decisions in nearly every state, for the first time in many decades.  2012 will looks to be a likely Senate turnover as a result.

UPDATE 8: All data are streaming live here and here: Reid has indeed held his seat over the challenge from Angle by 5%.  CO (Buck v. Bennet) and  Washington  (Murray v. Rossi) are too close to call.  While ballots are still being counted, it appears that Lisa Murkowski will retain her seat as a a write-in candidate in Alaska - a first, and probably possible only in Alaska.  The Senate remains in Democratic hands by at least two seats.  The House has switched to Republican hands by a large margin.  With many races still too close to call, the Republicans currently at a 59 seat pickup.  A final update will be posted when some of the other races are called.

Change is coming.

UPDATE 7: California remains blue with wins by Boxer and Moon-Beam Brown (can't resist - lived there when he was Gov. the first time around).

UPDATE 6: OH is leaning red, where Kasich (R) now leads Strickland (D) for the governorship.  Mick Mulvaney (R) has just defeated the Chair of the House Budget Committee, John Spratt (D) in SC.  And big reversal from an update below ... Kirk (R) now leads Giannoulias (D) in IL by 2%.

UPDATE 5: Ron Johnson (R) has defeated Feingold (D) in WI, while Nikki Haley (R) has won the governorship of South Carolina over Vincent Sheeheen (D).

UPDATE 4: PA and West Virginia continue to trend purple, while Virginia and Florida are going bright-red.  Reid and Angle in Nevada are too close to call (CNN reports a less than 1% separation in exit polling).

UPDATE 3: Giannoulias (D; AKA mob-banker) looks set to win Obama's old seat over Kirk (R; AKA honor-thief).

UPDATE 2: Boozman (R) has defeated Blanche Lincoln (D) in AR.  Blumenthal (D) has held on in CT, as has Manchin (D) in West Virginia (part of the DNC's firewall strategy).  Bill Flores (R) has just flipped the seat held by Chet Edwards in TX CD 17.

UPDATE 1: Exit polls across the board are not looking good for the DNC.

BMG is back just in time for election night 2010.  Early results are below.

It looks like Florida is making a big right-ward swing.  Based on early voting and polling-station interviews, it looks like the Senate will remain in GOP hands, that several important Congressional seats will move to the right (especially the 22nd district where Allen West is running to defeat Ron Klein), and that the governor's race will break for the Scott over Sink (neither of whom is particularly estimable).  Rubio has already trounced Crist and Meek.  Florida's Congressional District 8, currently held by the odious Alan Grayson (D), is now back in GOP hands.

Rand Paul appears to have pulled the first major Senate upset of the night in KY, while Coats (R) seems set to take the Senate seat from Ellsworth (D) in IN.  Nikki Haley (R) is in a very tight race to replace Sanford (he of Appalacian Trail fame) as governor of SC.

Rob Portman (R) is now being called as holding the OH senate race for the GOP, while the OH governor's race is too close to call (Kasich v. Strickland).

Pres. Obama's old seat is in a toss-up between a mob-banker and an honor-thief; I certainly don't wish to be back in my old voting district choosing between Giannoulias (D) and Kirk (R).  Christine O'Donnell (R) is now projected to have lost Biden's old seat to Coons (D).

The western states are still to early to call, although Reid appears to be doing better than anticipated from the early voting returns.

Why ... Thank You Mr. President

I'm sure you've seen or heard this lovely quip from the president:

'After his speech at the Kennedy Space Center today, President Obama headed to Miami for a pair of fundraisers expected to bring in $2.5 million for the DNC. Speaking at one of those events, the president made a Tax Day defense of his administration's policies and claimed to be "amused" by the tea party rallies occurring nationwide today. From a pool report:

'On tax day, he show cases the tax cuts in the stimulus plan, other tax break, and refusal to raise taxes on people making less than $250,000 a year. "So I've been amused in recent days by these people having rallies," he said to laughter. "I think they should be saying thank you." Big applause, and calls of "Thank you" from the crowd."''

OK - I'll bite.

Thank you Mr. President for ...

1. Single-handedly reviving the Republican brand
2. Moving Independents back to conservative roots faster than anyone in history
3. Guaranteeing the downfall of Sen. Reid and numerous others
4. Possibly enabling the downfall of the odious Sen.-don't call me ma'am-Boxer

Shall I continue? I have a whole list of thank-yous Mr. President.

Tales from the Other Side of the Crypt

As I wrote yesterday, I think it's important that Republicans take care to not over-reach following the the phenomenal win by Scott Brown in the Massachusetts special election. Hubris has brought the party low very recently. Nonetheless, the win should clearly signal that the public thinks that the Obama administration and Congressional leadership have moved too far to the left, and is particularly discontented with the health care reform bills, lack of transparency and the economic recovery proposals. Repeated polling, by non-partisan polling organizations, have demonstrated that voters are royally angry at the health care bill, security failures and general direction of the country.



Strangely, some on the left have reached the crazy conclusion that blue-Massachusetts elected a center-right candidate because Congress has not gone far enough left. If the administration buys 'move-left' drive, they may very well drive voters to vote for the GOP out of sheer reactionary anger. Those reaching this conclusion are calling for health care reform to pass through reconciliation, whereby the bill would be passed only on budgetary issues. Such a process would eliminate many of the current special arrangements in the bill, but arguments are being made to re-insert a public option, under the assumption that it could be massaged to (at least in the short term) be fiscally neutral under CBO assessment.

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Where does the GOP go from here? Elections over the last four years have repeatedly demonstrated that the voters do not want the extremes from either side. The majority of the country has been for some time, and looks likely to remain, center-right. This can play against both parties, where the tendency is to move to the extremes. Brown campaigned (and his voting record as a state senator bears this out) as a center-right candidate. He effectively captured voter anger over the economy, security issues and the health care reform proposals. He has never suggested that health care reform should be abandoned, but rather that Congress and the administration are going about it the wrong way. The GOP needs to do more than just say no to the left, it needs to formulate successful, well-thought out, counter proposals. If considered, detailed proposals are put up for debate by the public, we will have a much better chance of effectively moving policy, and of gaining seats in November.

They're Baaaaaack!

.... and so is the ModCon - just in time for the MA senatorial election. The next person to hold one of the two senatorial seats in Massachuetts will be decided within the hour, bickering not withstanding. While the DNC may be hoping against hope, much of the country is deciding that hope and change lie in different direction than envisioned by the administration. Should Scott Brown (the Republican candidate) win, much of the focus from the left will be on who to blame, while many on the right will focus on resurgence (even with a Brown loss).

But I think that we on the right need to focus on something else entirely. It's quite clear that, while turnout will be important in determining the outcome of the race, it is the turnout among independents that will be the most important. Lost in all the coverage is the blunt fact that the majority of voters in MA, while leaning left, are actually registered Independent. Independents are the ones who have really pushed the Brown campaign forward, and their ire has been raised against Republicans and Democrats alike. Independents were also largely responsible for Obama's win last year, and their dramatic shift away from he, and the Congressional leadership, can not necessarily be attributed to a sympathy with all things Republican. Republicans would do well to take as much of a lesson from the outcome of this election, whatever it may be, as Dems - failure to support economic revival and to protect the country will not be tolerated from anyone, regardless of party.

More will be posted as election results come in.