Following yesterday's brief post, on declining poll numbers for the president, Congress and the Democratic Party, here's a more detailed analysis. Today's RCP Average for the president is -0.7.
And for your general entertainment, here's a science-based approach to international negotiations.
Showing posts with label Democratic Party. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Democratic Party. Show all posts
12 April 2010
03 February 2010
Primary Results in Illinois and Florida
Lost in all the discussion over the Illinois primaries was the fact that Florida had a special primary for its 19th Congressional District yesterday. That cleared the way to elect a replacement for Rep. Wexler, who ostensibly retired to head up a think tank (the fact that he serially cheated on his wife, a la Edwards, and had no hope of re-election, of course had nothing to do with it). Despite the claims in this NPR story, the three GOP candidates have recently begun to rise in the polls against the potential Democratic challengers. Edward Lynch, who is well known among local GOP voters, won the Republican primary (Florida holds closed primaries), while Ted Deutch (a State Senator who also has high name recognition) won the Democratic primary. Florida's primary primary (it begged to be said) is August 24. At this point, Gov. Charlie Crist looks likely to lose the primary (to replace former Sen. Mel Martinez, who abruptly resigned last year) to State Representative Marco Rubio. Both men are polling well ahead of the main Democratic challenger, Kendrick Meek.
In Illinois, the most closely watched race was probably the primary for US Senate. Kirk won the Republican primary while Giannoulias won the Democratic primary. Kirk has an excellent reputation among state GOP voters, and in a state where just about every level of government is dominated by the Democratic party that has presided over multiple corruption scandals and failures, more conservative candidates have an excellent chance of picking off some key positions in November. The primary race to replace Blogo has yet to be called for either party.
The most recent RCP averages show polling trends generally swinging against the Democratic party, and in specific races, against the party establishment on both sides of the fence. I can't help but think this is healthy, both for the parties (which have become far too complacent and moribund) and for the country as a whole. It's going to be a fascinating election cycle to watch.
In Illinois, the most closely watched race was probably the primary for US Senate. Kirk won the Republican primary while Giannoulias won the Democratic primary. Kirk has an excellent reputation among state GOP voters, and in a state where just about every level of government is dominated by the Democratic party that has presided over multiple corruption scandals and failures, more conservative candidates have an excellent chance of picking off some key positions in November. The primary race to replace Blogo has yet to be called for either party.
The most recent RCP averages show polling trends generally swinging against the Democratic party, and in specific races, against the party establishment on both sides of the fence. I can't help but think this is healthy, both for the parties (which have become far too complacent and moribund) and for the country as a whole. It's going to be a fascinating election cycle to watch.
27 January 2010
Tacking Into the Wind
President Obama seems to be wavering between two options for tonight's SOTU speech.
Option 1: Tack to the middle. Moderates in his party are demanding this, and are trying to block efforts to resuscitate the health care bill through reconciliation. Sen. Reid and Rep. Pelosi seem to realize that efforts to ram through a compromise bill are dead, and the House will not pass the Senate bill without modification.
Option 1: Tack to the middle. Moderates in his party are demanding this, and are trying to block efforts to resuscitate the health care bill through reconciliation. Sen. Reid and Rep. Pelosi seem to realize that efforts to ram through a compromise bill are dead, and the House will not pass the Senate bill without modification.
'Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) told reporters, “We’re not on health care now.” As for the schedule to get it done, he said, “there is no rush.”'
- 'Speaker Pelosi has said House Democrats will not simply vote to approve the health care bill adopted by the Senate on Dec. 24, and send it directly to Mr. Obama for his signature.
- Representative Charles B. Rangel, Democrat of New York and chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, said, “We are not passing the Senate bill period.”'
Option 2: Assume that sinking poll numbers are due to a failure to go populist enough. This seems to be the tack that the President is leaning toward. With this option, he can accept blame for not ramming through his priorities fast-enough, without considering that those priorities may be unwanted or unwarranted.
'When Mr. Obama presents his first State of the Union address on Wednesday evening, aides said he would accept responsibility, though not necessarily blame, for failing to deliver swiftly on some of the changes he promised a year ago. But he will not, aides said, accede to criticism that his priorities are out of step with the nation’s.'
Neither option will win over all of the President's own party, much less the independents who are deserting in droves, but it will be interesting to see which option he chooses tonight. The one consistent lesson this White House seems to draw from setbacks is that it can talk its way out of them. I doubt this, given consistent drops in all polls despite much talk, but he'll certainly try.
19 January 2010
They're Baaaaaack!
.... and so is the ModCon - just in time for the MA senatorial election. The next person to hold one of the two senatorial seats in Massachuetts will be decided within the hour, bickering not withstanding. While the DNC may be hoping against hope, much of the country is deciding that hope and change lie in different direction than envisioned by the administration. Should Scott Brown (the Republican candidate) win, much of the focus from the left will be on who to blame, while many on the right will focus on resurgence (even with a Brown loss).
But I think that we on the right need to focus on something else entirely. It's quite clear that, while turnout will be important in determining the outcome of the race, it is the turnout among independents that will be the most important. Lost in all the coverage is the blunt fact that the majority of voters in MA, while leaning left, are actually registered Independent. Independents are the ones who have really pushed the Brown campaign forward, and their ire has been raised against Republicans and Democrats alike. Independents were also largely responsible for Obama's win last year, and their dramatic shift away from he, and the Congressional leadership, can not necessarily be attributed to a sympathy with all things Republican. Republicans would do well to take as much of a lesson from the outcome of this election, whatever it may be, as Dems - failure to support economic revival and to protect the country will not be tolerated from anyone, regardless of party.
More will be posted as election results come in.
But I think that we on the right need to focus on something else entirely. It's quite clear that, while turnout will be important in determining the outcome of the race, it is the turnout among independents that will be the most important. Lost in all the coverage is the blunt fact that the majority of voters in MA, while leaning left, are actually registered Independent. Independents are the ones who have really pushed the Brown campaign forward, and their ire has been raised against Republicans and Democrats alike. Independents were also largely responsible for Obama's win last year, and their dramatic shift away from he, and the Congressional leadership, can not necessarily be attributed to a sympathy with all things Republican. Republicans would do well to take as much of a lesson from the outcome of this election, whatever it may be, as Dems - failure to support economic revival and to protect the country will not be tolerated from anyone, regardless of party.
More will be posted as election results come in.
08 December 2009
Post-Afghan Speech Job-Approval Polling
President Obama's polling numbers, following the speech on revisions to the Afghanistan policy, have continued on a downward trend. RCP noted that the Gallup poll had an unusual drop of four points overnight.
These polling changes are largely meaningless to the Presidency at this point in time, and similar results only forced President Clinton to re-tool his agenda, pushing him closer to the center than he might otherwise have been. To many in Congress, however, these numbers have got to be troubling. Harry Reid continues to sound increasingly desperate, while his own poll numbers have taken a long, slow dive. Generic Congressional polls place Republicans within 0.4 points of Democrats, while 58.2% (as an average of multiple polls) state that the country is headed in the wrong direction. In general, these are not the numbers to make the Democratic Party happy, and may signal a trend back toward the center.
'Obama suffered a net four point loss of support overnight - a noticeably sharp decline for a tracking poll that usually doesn't move more than a point or two in either direction on any given day.'
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Approve | Disapprove | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 11/12 - 12/6 | -- | 49.0 | 45.1 | +3.9 |
| Gallup | 12/4 - 12/6 | 1547 A | 47 | 46 | +1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 12/4 - 12/6 | 1500 LV | 49 | 50 | -1 |
| CNN/Opinion Research | 12/2 - 12/3 | 1041 A | 48 | 50 | -2 |
| USA Today/Gallup | 11/20 - 11/22 | 1017 A | 50 | 44 | +6 |
| FOX News | 11/17 - 11/18 | 900 RV | 46 | 46 | Tie |
| CBS News | 11/13 - 11/16 | 1167 A | 53 | 36 | +17 |
| Democracy Corps (D) | 11/12 - 11/16 | 1000 RV | 50 | 44 | +6 |
11 October 2009
Cable News Wars Heats Up
CNN aired an ad in the South Florida market tonight with a voice-over by a woman calling herself "... a lifelong Democrat." In the spare ad, she states that she listens to CNN's Anderson Cooper (AC360) because she knows that he "... holds right-wing Republican Congressmen ..." accountable when they "lie." Nothing in the ad says anything about holding left-wing politicians who lie accountable. One comes away with the impression that CNN is now firmly a Democratic organ. The ad is not yet available on the Internet, but will be posted here when it is.
This ad seems to be part of a larger trend for the cable news networks to directly attack each other, head-to-head. Most recently, Fox News and CNN have gone after each other over coverage of the 9-12 (Tea Party) protest in Washington, D.C. on September 12. Both networks covered the protests fairly extensively (having spent part of the day going back and forth between the coverage, my own estimation was that while Fox spent more time and resources on the coverage, both networks covered the event extensively). Fox took out an ad stating that all of the major news networks, including CNN, missed covering the event altogether. Most of the other networks mentioned the event, but did little coverage, but CNN was incensed to be included among this group, and fired back with an ad and reporting directly accusing Fox of lying.
MSNBC aired an ad early in the year, attacking both CNN and Fox, implying that they both were distorting the facts, and siding with (by implication) the Bush Administration. Both networks fired back immediately.
It's difficult to know what to think of these tit-for-tat attacks between the networks, although it does seem clear that most news networks are increasingly turning to new interpretation rather than straight reporting. Once thing seems certain: the conflict is going to continue to heat up for now.
This ad seems to be part of a larger trend for the cable news networks to directly attack each other, head-to-head. Most recently, Fox News and CNN have gone after each other over coverage of the 9-12 (Tea Party) protest in Washington, D.C. on September 12. Both networks covered the protests fairly extensively (having spent part of the day going back and forth between the coverage, my own estimation was that while Fox spent more time and resources on the coverage, both networks covered the event extensively). Fox took out an ad stating that all of the major news networks, including CNN, missed covering the event altogether. Most of the other networks mentioned the event, but did little coverage, but CNN was incensed to be included among this group, and fired back with an ad and reporting directly accusing Fox of lying.
MSNBC aired an ad early in the year, attacking both CNN and Fox, implying that they both were distorting the facts, and siding with (by implication) the Bush Administration. Both networks fired back immediately.
It's difficult to know what to think of these tit-for-tat attacks between the networks, although it does seem clear that most news networks are increasingly turning to new interpretation rather than straight reporting. Once thing seems certain: the conflict is going to continue to heat up for now.
10 February 2009
Presidency for life?
No, I'm not talking about Chavez, whose made it more than clear that he wants to be President for Life.
I'm talking about the Democratic Party, which is making a grab for control of the census by having it run out of the White House. This would mean data used to determine the composition of the Electoral College, re-districting maps, and government spending programs would be managed and determined by a partisan for the first time. In a power-grab intended in part to make Judd Gregg's new position, peripheral, the White House has announced that the hyper-partisan, Rahm Emanuel, will now run the census as part of
You can link to the Census Bureau performance assessment at "ExpectMore.gov." It would be just perfect if they'd expand it to: Expect More Government. Their 'mission' statement reads:
Now, why don't I take that seriously? Is it just me, or have two whole branches of the government been completely co-opted by power-hungry hacks?
Anyone get the feeling that they want the Presidency for Life?
I'm talking about the Democratic Party, which is making a grab for control of the census by having it run out of the White House. This would mean data used to determine the composition of the Electoral College, re-districting maps, and government spending programs would be managed and determined by a partisan for the first time. In a power-grab intended in part to make Judd Gregg's new position, peripheral, the White House has announced that the hyper-partisan, Rahm Emanuel, will now run the census as part of
You can link to the Census Bureau performance assessment at "ExpectMore.gov." It would be just perfect if they'd expand it to: Expect More Government. Their 'mission' statement reads:
Now, why don't I take that seriously? Is it just me, or have two whole branches of the government been completely co-opted by power-hungry hacks?
Anyone get the feeling that they want the Presidency for Life?
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