13 April 2010

FINAL UPDATES: Election Day Special on the Florida's Special Election

UPDATE 2: There will be no change in party affiliation for FL-19.  As of 8:56 PM, Ted Deutch has won by 64.75% to Lynch's 32.64% and McCormick's 2.55%.  A write-in candidate, Josue Larose obtained .06% of the total vote.  24,854 votes have been counted.  These numbers are not too likely to alter significantly since most precincts have reported in.  Where the national will move to in November remains a serious hobby of prognosticators.  One interesting facet of today's special election is that the voters get a 'try-out' period with the winner.  Because Wexler resigned mid-term, Deutch will serve until November, and must then win a regular election.  Depending on the mood of the electorate by that time, Lynch may get a second shot.  One potential indicator is the very low voter turnout, which was under 20% (strangely, the elections office considers this turnout to be high).

UPDATE 1: Voting has remained very light throughout the day, and may be exceeded in rate by the early and absentee voting.  Polls close at 7:00 PM.

Here in Florida's 19th Congressional District, we'll be electing a replacement for the unlamented Robert Wexler.  Ted Deutch is running for the Dems, Edward Lynch for the Republicans, and Jim McCormick is running as an independent under the People Before Party moniker.  McCormick may syphon off some votes from Lynch, which Deutch is no doubt counting on.  Despite a very limited budget and personal financial woes, the anger over Obamacare and the bailouts, in this reliably blue district, may propel Lynch to the forefront.  So far, voting appears relatively light throughout the county, and Lynch has the advantage of a healthy volunteer corps (driving throughout the county I've seen plenty of happy Lynch supporters and signs, but almost nothing for Deutch).  Lynch has also been relying on cheap and free media, and has a number of internet campaigns running under volunteer control.  Turning over the self-proclaimed 'fire-breathing liberal's' seat to a Republican would be quite a coup for conservatives, and a possible sign of a coming blood-bath in November.

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