19 March 2010

The Lines Have Crossed

For the first time in his presidency, and even more precipitously than Bill Clinton, President Obama's RCP average (a running average of major polls) has dropped into negative territory. The approve vs. disapprove lines have crossed, and he is down to -0.2.

President Obama Job Approval

Polling Data

PollDateSampleApprove Disapprove Spread
RCP Average3/3 - 3/18--47.547.7 -0.2
Gallup3/16 - 3/181547 A4747Tie
Rasmussen Reports3/16 - 3/181500 LV4555 -10
FOX News3/16 - 3/17900 RV4648 -2
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl3/11 - 3/141000 A4847 +1
Pew Research3/10 - 3/141500 A4643 +3
Associated Press/GfK3/3 - 3/81002 A5346 +7

See All President Obama Job Approval Polling Data

As the Los Angeles Times sarcastically noted, this dip could be due to many things, but is most likely connected to the president's obsession with passing a HC bill, any bill, by any means. Interestingly, the RCP Average will probably drop further tomorrow, after today's Gallup Poll results are included. The Gallup Poll reflected in today's RCP Average has an approval tie, but today's Gallup has the president down by -2.

Today's RCP Average also has the general Republican brand up to +1.6 over the Democrats. It looks more and more likely that November will bring a bloodbath.

Tomorrow: a closer look at the recent CBO scoring.

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