02 November 2010

UPDATES: Mid-Term Elections 2010

UPDATE 9: The Denver Post has called the senate race for the Democrat, Michael Bennet over challenger Buck (R) by less than 1%.   Lisa Murkowski seems destined to make history as an NPA write-in candidate in Alaska, while Washington is still evenly split between Murray (D, incumbent) and Rossi (R) at 50:50.  Overall, there were 6 Senate pickups for the Republicans, with no Democratic gains.  The GOP now stands at a 61 seat pickup in the House, with ten races left undecided as of this afternoon.  Of those, seven of the races have the Republican candidate tied with or leading the Democratic candidate.  The House indeed experienced a tsunami of epic proportions.  The last time a race broke this far for the Republican party was in the 1930s.

The state legislature and governors' races were he most interesting to watch.  The GOP picked up 6 governorships, while the DNC lost 7 (Rhode Island went to newly independent Lincoln Chafe).  Sean Trende has the analysis of the state legislatures here.  The Republicans will now control redistricting decisions in nearly every state, for the first time in many decades.  2012 will looks to be a likely Senate turnover as a result.

UPDATE 8: All data are streaming live here and here: Reid has indeed held his seat over the challenge from Angle by 5%.  CO (Buck v. Bennet) and  Washington  (Murray v. Rossi) are too close to call.  While ballots are still being counted, it appears that Lisa Murkowski will retain her seat as a a write-in candidate in Alaska - a first, and probably possible only in Alaska.  The Senate remains in Democratic hands by at least two seats.  The House has switched to Republican hands by a large margin.  With many races still too close to call, the Republicans currently at a 59 seat pickup.  A final update will be posted when some of the other races are called.

Change is coming.

UPDATE 7: California remains blue with wins by Boxer and Moon-Beam Brown (can't resist - lived there when he was Gov. the first time around).

UPDATE 6: OH is leaning red, where Kasich (R) now leads Strickland (D) for the governorship.  Mick Mulvaney (R) has just defeated the Chair of the House Budget Committee, John Spratt (D) in SC.  And big reversal from an update below ... Kirk (R) now leads Giannoulias (D) in IL by 2%.

UPDATE 5: Ron Johnson (R) has defeated Feingold (D) in WI, while Nikki Haley (R) has won the governorship of South Carolina over Vincent Sheeheen (D).

UPDATE 4: PA and West Virginia continue to trend purple, while Virginia and Florida are going bright-red.  Reid and Angle in Nevada are too close to call (CNN reports a less than 1% separation in exit polling).

UPDATE 3: Giannoulias (D; AKA mob-banker) looks set to win Obama's old seat over Kirk (R; AKA honor-thief).

UPDATE 2: Boozman (R) has defeated Blanche Lincoln (D) in AR.  Blumenthal (D) has held on in CT, as has Manchin (D) in West Virginia (part of the DNC's firewall strategy).  Bill Flores (R) has just flipped the seat held by Chet Edwards in TX CD 17.

UPDATE 1: Exit polls across the board are not looking good for the DNC.

BMG is back just in time for election night 2010.  Early results are below.

It looks like Florida is making a big right-ward swing.  Based on early voting and polling-station interviews, it looks like the Senate will remain in GOP hands, that several important Congressional seats will move to the right (especially the 22nd district where Allen West is running to defeat Ron Klein), and that the governor's race will break for the Scott over Sink (neither of whom is particularly estimable).  Rubio has already trounced Crist and Meek.  Florida's Congressional District 8, currently held by the odious Alan Grayson (D), is now back in GOP hands.

Rand Paul appears to have pulled the first major Senate upset of the night in KY, while Coats (R) seems set to take the Senate seat from Ellsworth (D) in IN.  Nikki Haley (R) is in a very tight race to replace Sanford (he of Appalacian Trail fame) as governor of SC.

Rob Portman (R) is now being called as holding the OH senate race for the GOP, while the OH governor's race is too close to call (Kasich v. Strickland).

Pres. Obama's old seat is in a toss-up between a mob-banker and an honor-thief; I certainly don't wish to be back in my old voting district choosing between Giannoulias (D) and Kirk (R).  Christine O'Donnell (R) is now projected to have lost Biden's old seat to Coons (D).

The western states are still to early to call, although Reid appears to be doing better than anticipated from the early voting returns.

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