Double Dip ... Polling

President Obama's poll numbers have dipped back into negative territory (actually, they've been there for most of the prior two weeks) in a big way with today's polling numbers.  The RCP average puts him at -3.3.  Only the Time Magazine poll (never a bell-weather) has him in positive territory at +4, and Rasmussen has fallen to -12 (likely voter poll).  Congress continues it's slow fall into the abyss at almost -50, while the Republicans are up over the Dems at +3.3.  The RCP average for direction of the country is -28.7.  Finally, the major toss-up elections are started to lean Republican, including major seats (e.g.: Boxer and Reid).  With less than 100 days to the mid-term election, the Democrats are fast-approaching a decision-point: stick with Obama or resist to save their own skins.  It's going to be an interesting Fall.

Post-Afghan Speech Job-Approval Polling

President Obama's polling numbers, following the speech on revisions to the Afghanistan policy, have continued on a downward trend. RCP noted that the Gallup poll had an unusual drop of four points overnight.

'Obama suffered a net four point loss of support overnight - a noticeably sharp decline for a tracking poll that usually doesn't move more than a point or two in either direction on any given day.'

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	Approve	Disapprove	Spread
RCP Average	11/12 - 12/6	--	49.0	45.1	+3.9
Gallup	12/4 - 12/6	1547 A	47	46	+1
Rasmussen Reports	12/4 - 12/6	1500 LV	49	50	-1
CNN/Opinion Research	12/2 - 12/3	1041 A	48	50	-2
USA Today/Gallup	11/20 - 11/22	1017 A	50	44	+6
FOX News	11/17 - 11/18	900 RV	46	46	Tie
CBS News	11/13 - 11/16	1167 A	53	36	+17
Democracy Corps (D)	11/12 - 11/16	1000 RV	50	44	+6

See All President Obama Job Approval Polling Data

These polling changes are largely meaningless to the Presidency at this point in time, and similar results only forced President Clinton to re-tool his agenda, pushing him closer to the center than he might otherwise have been. To many in Congress, however, these numbers have got to be troubling. Harry Reid continues to sound increasingly desperate, while his own poll numbers have taken a long, slow dive. Generic Congressional polls place Republicans within 0.4 points of Democrats, while 58.2% (as an average of multiple polls) state that the country is headed in the wrong direction. In general, these are not the numbers to make the Democratic Party happy, and may signal a trend back toward the center.

The Color Purple

Resurgent Republic has published the results of an extensive polling of self-identified Independent voters, with an eye to the 2010 elections. As has been evidenced in a number of recent polls, these voters (who are often the determining factor in national election cycles) still like President Obama, and generally support him. Support for specific policies however, is steadily slipping, particularly as pertains to fiscal policies.
The most intriguing results related to questions about support for Congress that were aimed at predicting outcomes in the 2010 Congressional election cycle. Here, Independents are generally united - they want to throw the bums out. Charlie Cook writes about these results in the National Journal Magazine.

'A whopping 48 of those Democrats -- eight more than the size of their party's majority -- are from districts that voted for both Bush and McCain. That America is very different from the Democratic base in blue America, and it sees many major issues very differently.

Resurgent Republic's findings corroborate a growing view that the cumulative impact of Democratic missteps has reached a critical mass, with Obama receiving some damage and with Democrats in Congress and the Democratic Party receiving much more. Critics point to the Troubled Asset Relief Program; the takeovers of banks and auto companies; an economic stimulus package that they see as ineffectual and stuffed with pork; and climate-change and health care reform efforts as all being contributing factors to Democrats' decline.

The 17-point advantage that Democrats enjoyed in the January Gallup Poll (when "leaners" were included) shrank to 5 points in August. Their edge on the generic congressional ballot test has vanished, according to most national polls. For three years, Democrats enjoyed high single-digit or low double-digit leads on this question -- a very good indicator of which direction (and how hard) the political winds are blowing as a congressional election nears.

What we are seeing is an electorate growing just as disgusted with the Democratic majority as it did with the Republican one in 2006. The mounting ethics problems of House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel, D-N.Y., combined with ongoing allegations about House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee Chairman John Murtha, D-Pa., and others on his panel threaten to make matters still worse for their party.'

The poll results also match up with other polling, which consistently place the Republican brand within the statistical margin of error of the Democrats. In general Congress is strongly disfavored across the board. The running average reflected in the daily RCP average has consistently placed Congressional approval at -30 or lower for an extended period. Since January, no single poll has placed the Congressional approval at better than -15. This does not bode well for the 2010 election cycle. Looking at these results, it's doubtful that the Republicans can regain either the House or the Senate (after all, some of them are the bums that voters want to shed), but 29-37 House seats, and several Senate seats up for re-election (think Reid and Dodd), are vulnerable. We may end up with a deadlock in Congress starting next January, and that may be the best thing for the country. It would force bipartisanship to accomplish anything, and would push the President toward the centrality he campaigned on. Purple states (and voters) may lead the way next year.

Poll	Date				Approve			Disapprove		Spread
FOX News	9/15 - 9/16				27			64		-37
Associated Press/GfK	9/3 - 9/8				28			69		-41
Gallup	8/31 - 9/2				31			63		-32
CBS News	8/27 - 8/31				26			58		-32

See All Congressional Job Approval Polling Data

The President sets the bipartisan tone with mockery

While at the Democratic retreat in Williamsburg Thursday night (at a posh hotel, partially paid for by you and me), the President struck a non-bipartisan tone by mocking the Republicans and any concerns they may have on the 'stimulus' bill. Apparently, it's not the Dems' fault that they passed a huge porky bill last fall and failed to set any limits on it.

While speaking to fellow party members, the President indulged in some partisan ranting, making an open mockery his vaunted lack of ideology. When addressing the Republican opposition to the proposed new fleet of cars, the President mocked concerns that such a massive expenditure would do nothing to quickly stimulate the economy and is overspending. Listen to the whole speech when you get a chance.




The President seems willing to assume that anything less than full capitulation is due to sheer stubborness and lack of intelligence. He went on to mock recent statements by Republicans that the stimulus bill is nothing more than a 'spending bill,' saying 'what do you think a stimulus is.'

Well, gee, Mr. President. I thought a stimulus was supposed to help stimulate economic activity NOW, not two years from now and at the expense of the GDP. I thought it should help lots of people get jobs, not a few producing extremely expensive products. I thought you were all for 'shovel-ready' projects, not expenditures that are meaningless to the majority of the country. That would be a stimulus. What you have now is a pork-laden bill, which will only stimulate moderate activity, laden us with generation of debt, and which is a gift to every liberal whose ever dreamed of all-encompassing power.

So much for bipartisanship.

Risk sensitivity and voters

While sitting in an Ecological Modeling Class the other day, I had a revelation about why normally sane, rational people were so caught up in the Obamamania. They are economic risk-takers. Risk-sensitivity theory is based on modeling the behavior of consumers based on their preferences when faced with a choice between a 50/50 chance of a high payoff (vs. no or low payoff) and a 100% chance of a moderate payoff. These models are the whole reason for the targeting of low-income and low-education consumers by lotto boards; people with lower incomes and lower educations often (note, not always - no model is perfect) choose the riskier option. They will spend money on the chance of a high payoff, knowing they're more likely to get no or a low payoff. Those who have more, tend to be more cautious and choose the 'certainty' option. They are more likely to choose the 100% option of a moderate payoff.

This sounds to me to be very close to what happened on Tuesday. Only in this case, I think we'd have to add into the 'low-income' category, those who perceive themselves (perhaps 2nd hand) as suffering. These voters were willing to take a gamble on someone who has no experience, a murky background, and offers 'pie-in-the-sky' rhetoric over a true American hero with more experience in his little finger. The Obama-lovers were "risk prone." To get themselves away from what they perceive as the source of their woes (the Republican Party), they gambled. Even with this gambling addiction sweeping our country, and the Obama campaign doing its darndest to buy the election, John McCain would still have won if it weren't for the addition of those 'we hate him so much we'll doom the entire country' Republicans who NEVER SHOWED UP TO VOTE. I'm really angriest at them. How dare they thumb their noses at all of us. Now we all have to find out what the gamble will bring us.

Socialists, Racists and Fraud, Oh My!

Richard Epstein published an insightful Oped in Forbes today, addressing the cloudiness of Obama's true views on economic policy and how he would use the power of the Presidency. Epstein, who knows Obama through his neighborhood and law school, is a well-known libertarian (I've read other pieces by him while working and living in the Chicago area), and as such, is not too likely to be a fan of Obama. Nonetheless, his letter is spot-on. Obama is known for presenting a calm, accessible demeanor without revealing his left-ward leanings. I've written before that I think he associates with radicals because it brings him power, while speaking to his own preferences. If Obama is elected President with a super-majority in Congress, there will be no fetters on those preferences, and a willing Congress to support out-of-control spending, a welfare state, and muzzling of the right. I'm going to have to sharpen my teeth if that happens. Click on the title for the Epstein letter.

After calling his constituents racists last week, Congressman Murtha is now calling them rednecks. He apparently doesn't know that that's the native color of anyone who works hard, and is bitterly clinging to guns and religion waiting for the coming socialist state.

And we return to fraud - this time real voter fraud (not just registration fraud, which apparently, Democrats think is just dandy as long as people vote for Obama). Reports from OH (what a shocker), and multiple other states with early voting are showing, gasp, false registrants are fraudulently voting! Holy cow, who could have foreseen that one? County Prosecutor Joseph Deters (Cincinnati) has subpoenaed records from early voting, and found that a whopping 40% of early votes in his county were from fraudulent registrants, including those recently-discovered Ohio River mermaids (it's a pretty muddy river - I wouldn't want to live in it myself, but I guess some of the local inhabitants like the muck). He's recused himself from the investigation, and turned it over to a special prosecutor who is finding the same thing. Since OH's Sec-State, Jennifer Brunner, and Governor, Ted Strickland, see no problem (maybe they've got river mud in their eyes) other than pesky Republicans trying to strike fear into voters' hearts, there may be no way to get an accurate assessment of what's really happening until six months from now.