Double Dip ... Polling

President Obama's poll numbers have dipped back into negative territory (actually, they've been there for most of the prior two weeks) in a big way with today's polling numbers.  The RCP average puts him at -3.3.  Only the Time Magazine poll (never a bell-weather) has him in positive territory at +4, and Rasmussen has fallen to -12 (likely voter poll).  Congress continues it's slow fall into the abyss at almost -50, while the Republicans are up over the Dems at +3.3.  The RCP average for direction of the country is -28.7.  Finally, the major toss-up elections are started to lean Republican, including major seats (e.g.: Boxer and Reid).  With less than 100 days to the mid-term election, the Democrats are fast-approaching a decision-point: stick with Obama or resist to save their own skins.  It's going to be an interesting Fall.

Down in Negative Territory

For the second time to date, and far more significantly than previously, President Obama's RCP average has dropped into negative territory.  Gallup, Rasmussen, Fox, and USA Today/Gallup are all negative.  The friendliest of the most recent polls to the President, The Marist (which typically has a high bias toward self-identified DNC responders) is down to it's lowest point; +3.  Today's RCP average is -1.2.  The best poll that is currently out of the average (their last poll closed 3/26) is the Washington Post poll (also significantly biased leftward) at +10.  This poll has been dropping more slowly than the others, but has also shown a significant decline over the last six months.  It will be interesting to see a snapshot in June, when the mid-cycle campaigns are in full swing.

The RCP average for Congressional Approval polling is also dismal (-56.5); Health Care is at +12 Oppose (52.4 oppose: 40.4 approve) and the Election 2010 polling is looking increasingly red.  It's going to be a long, hot summer.

See Nancy .... Pole Vault?

Apparently, Nancy Pelosi thinks that health care reform is an Olympic sport, rather than a very serious reorganization of 1/6th of the economy.

'“It means, we will move on many fronts, any front we can,” Ms. Pelosi said. “We’ll go through the gate. If the gate’s closed, we’ll go over the fence. If the fence is too high, we’ll pole-vault in. If that doesn’t work, we’ll parachute in. But we’re going to get health care reform passed for the American people, for their own personal health and economic security, and for the important role that it will play in reducing the deficit.”'

The two fences she has to surmount are general public opposition, and more specific concerns by various Democratic factions. Even rah-rah cheerleader, Mary Landrieu, took at shot at the president today. Perhaps if the president were to get serious about bipartisanship, they'd have a way forward, but short of that, it seems unlikely that either the Senate or the House bill can pass as written. The latest proposals center around breaking the bills up into manageable pieces, but as Pelosi's first-up piece has nothing to do with decreasing costs or increasing competitiveness, it's difficult to take her seriously.

'Aides said that a first candidate for a stand-alone measure could be the proposal to eliminate the exemption from federal antitrust law that health insurance companies have long enjoyed. Such a proposal was incorporated in the larger House health care bill.'

I wonder which event Pelosi is competing in?

SOTU 2010 - Continuously updated

UPDATE 20: Final updates.
The text of President Obama's speech is here, and the text of the Republican response is here.
Video on the job (e.g., stimulus bill in hiding) is below:

Video clips and various pundit response from the SOTU are here.

UPDATE 19: The Republican response did a great job of re-establishing what the core values of the party are. President Obama gave a 'super-market' of a speech (Shields on PBS - great line), rather than a 'hand your hat on this' speech. It was a well-delivered, but not very memorable speech.

UPDATE 18:
Interesting - Gov. McDonnell is giving the speech in the VA House Chamber.
Summary of main points:
1. Encouraged by emphasis on jobs, but concerned about the specifics.
2. Wants more emphasis on entrepreneurship, and lack of government interference (quoting Jefferson).
3. Warning against the great, growing, government, debt and deficit. "... restore the proper, limited role of government. Without reform, the excessive role of government limits..."
4. Health Care Reform - yes, we need reform, but not this way. Particularly emphasizing tort reform and increased competition. "And our solutions are 1,000 page bills that no one has fully read, and that were drafted behind closed doors." Solutions.org.
5. Especially likes the first two energy points, and somewhat the third. Hates cap-and-trade. Points out that while the Administration promotes with one hand, it's policies have delayed oil exploration and nuclear development, and that cap and trade limits growth.
6. He agrees with the President on education development.
7. Security: his oldest daughter was an Army PL in Iraq. Agrees with responsible draw down in Iraq and redeployment to Afghanistan. "But we have serious concerns with the recent steps the Administration has taken ..." Quoted Scott Brown: "We should be spending tax-payer dollars to defeat terrorists, not defend them."
8. "Republicans know that government can not guarantee outcomes, but we strongly believe that it [can provide] equal opportunity..." Arguing against intrusive government growth into auto industry, banking sectors, energy companies, etc. "Government closest to the people governs best. And no government program can ever replace caring Americans, freely giving, to one another. As Scripture says, 'to whom much is given, much will be required.'"
9. We're entering better times, and need to work together to make it so.


UPDATE 17: While waiting - compare all the prior SOTU speeches.

UPDATE 16:
Governor Bob McDonnell (VA) will be giving the Republican response.

UPDATE 15:
Going into serious speech mode in the wrap-up. It's hard to assess the effect of this section since I think much of the meat of the speech was internally contradictory, but the language is good. It's far more hopeful and positive (and patriotic for that matter) than I've heard him be in a long time. We'll see how things pan out over the next few weeks. I'm interested in hearing the wrap-up and Republican response.

UPDATE 14:
Calling for repealing 'Don't Ask Don't Tell,' and more vigorous enforcement of employment discrimination law.

UPDATE 13:
Haiti: 12,000 Americans in relief and development work.
"For America must always stand on the side of human freedom and dignity." Great line - I wish he had more vigorously and immediately applied it during last summer's Green Revolution in Tehran, even if it didn't help.

UPDATE 12:
Security: In the past year, hundreds of Al Qaeda's leadership captured or killed; affirm good governance in Afghanistan; "responsibly leaving Iraq ... to its people." "By the end of this August, we will have all combat troops out of Iraq." Emphasizing support of troops upon return. "That's why we made the largest increase in investments for veterans in decades - last year."
"The United States and Russia are completing negotiations on the farthest reachings [yes, that was the word] arms-control agreements in two decades." Claiming that sanctions on North Korea are being vigorously enforced - lots of questions here - and that Iran is isolated (umm, no, not really).

UPDATE 11:
"... But what frustrates the American people is the idea that every day is election day. We shouldn't have a perpetual campaign." Err, isn't that what you have Mr. President? While saying that he's speaking to both parties, he clearly is slamming the Republicans, scolding them for "just saying no to everything." "I'd like to being monthly meetings with both Democrat and Republican leadership." I'd sincerely love to see this happen.

UPDATE 10:
"I'm proposing specific steps to pay for the trillion dollars it took to rescue the economy last year." He's getting into the discretionary spending freeze proposal and threatens a veto of bills that don't comply - only works if he's serious. He's also talking about removing tax relief to 'financial managers,' 'those making over $200K,' and other evil people. He will create a Presidential commission on 'debt-relief.' He's being awfully sarcastic and snotty, both in tone and word now - finally got around to the blame Bush canard.
"It's time to finally realize that we face more than a [budget] deficit ..., we face a deficit of trust." Very true, but you seem to fail to realize that some of that loss of trust is in you, your administration and Congress.

UPDATE 9:
"... But if anyone has a better idea to bring down premiums and [reduce costs] let me know." Here are several ideas Mr. President: serious, comprehensive tort reform; eliminate barriers to competition; eliminate incentives for insurance companies to be providers of health care; incentivize responsible consumer decision-making; incentivize MSAs.

UPDATE 8:
Ahhh - there it is. "... to relieve the burden on middle class families, that we still need health insurance reform. Now, let's clear a few things up." (First thought - don't be so snotty). Every poll out there now says that the public is not with him on this - they want reform, but not the way Congress is going about it. Back to the drawing board! It's clear he has no intention of going back to that board, and I seriously doubt Pelosi and Reid have that intention either.

UPDATE 7:
I personally love the idea of paying less on student loans, but how the heck can we afford it? It's fine to say that colleges and universities should reduce costs (and I fully agree - they're completely disproportionate), but again, government can't do this.

UPDATE 6:
Invest in schools: no problems with his emphasis on performance-based evaluation.

UPDATE 5:
'National Export Initiative': "We will double our exports in the next five years. It's totally impossible for government to accomplish this. All government can do is open doors and smooth the path.

UPDATE 4:
1. Safe, clean nuclear power plants
2. New drilling offshore
3. Investment in fuel-alternatives
4. Energy and climate bill

The first three received broad-spread bipartisan applause, while the fourth point received very little (even from the Dems). I agree with this line: "providing incentives for energy efficiency ... is the right thing to do." But, having the government drive a 'green economy' won't lead to an effective, efficient and green economy. This has to be a bottom-up strategy to succeed.

UPDATE 3:
Beat those evil businesses that 'ship jobs overseas.' Never mind if they also contribute to jobs and the economy here, or if there are other jobs coming here.

Implying that the US is not investing in its future. "I do not accept 2nd Place for the United States of America." I'm not sure exactly what he means by this. "It's time to get serious about fixing the problems that are hampering our growth ... I'm not interested in punishing banks, I'm interested in protecting our economy." Punitive fees and taxes punish banks. I agree with the concept that we should separate traditional banking from high-risk investment institutions, but creating yet another layer of bureaucracy won't do the trick.

UPDATE 2:
Tax cuts enacted helped to save money and keep folks employed. Is that why unemployment shot up to 10%? Resorts to the 'saved jobs' canard - no data to back this up, so it's impossible to either prove or disprove.
On track to add another 1.5 M jobs due to the 'Recovery Act' (e.g. stimulus bill) - wow! I thought he'd abandon saying this after all of the controversy over numbers.

Calling for a new jobs bill, stating that the "... true engine of jobs [creation] in this country will always be small business:
1. Loan stimulation at local banks to local business - if done effectively, this could have a dramatic impact.
2. Tax breaks for small and large business - good!
3. Cut capital gains taxes on small businesses - good!
If they could actually pass a bill that focused just on these three components, it could be very effective.

UPDATE 1:
1. Started out telling us what we already know - people are PO'd.
2. Fee on banks to 'recover' the bailout dollars left unpaid. Regardless of whether or not that particular bank took a bailout or paid it back?
3. Don't worry about the raised taxes - we've also cut.

Just before SOTU, the RCP average spread of President Obama's job approval numbers has dropped by 3 points in a twenty-four hour period. Only NBC and CBS show approval at 50%; the remaining polls (NPR, CNN, Gallup, Rasmussen, all have approval ratings at less than 50%. Rasmussen and CNN both show negative approval ratings (-7 and -1 respectively).

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	Approve	Disapprove	Spread
RCP Average	1/14 - 1/26	--	48.7	46.3	+2.4
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl	1/23 - 1/25	800 A	50	44	+6
NPR - POS/GQR	1/20 - 1/23	800 LV	49	48	+1
Gallup	1/24 - 1/26	1547 A	48	46	+2
Rasmussen Reports	1/24 - 1/26	1500 LV	46	53	-7
CNN/Opinion Research	1/22 - 1/24	1009 A	49	50	-1
CBS News	1/14 - 1/17	1090 A	50	37	+13

See All President Obama Job Approval Polling Data

The Color Purple

Resurgent Republic has published the results of an extensive polling of self-identified Independent voters, with an eye to the 2010 elections. As has been evidenced in a number of recent polls, these voters (who are often the determining factor in national election cycles) still like President Obama, and generally support him. Support for specific policies however, is steadily slipping, particularly as pertains to fiscal policies.
The most intriguing results related to questions about support for Congress that were aimed at predicting outcomes in the 2010 Congressional election cycle. Here, Independents are generally united - they want to throw the bums out. Charlie Cook writes about these results in the National Journal Magazine.

'A whopping 48 of those Democrats -- eight more than the size of their party's majority -- are from districts that voted for both Bush and McCain. That America is very different from the Democratic base in blue America, and it sees many major issues very differently.

Resurgent Republic's findings corroborate a growing view that the cumulative impact of Democratic missteps has reached a critical mass, with Obama receiving some damage and with Democrats in Congress and the Democratic Party receiving much more. Critics point to the Troubled Asset Relief Program; the takeovers of banks and auto companies; an economic stimulus package that they see as ineffectual and stuffed with pork; and climate-change and health care reform efforts as all being contributing factors to Democrats' decline.

The 17-point advantage that Democrats enjoyed in the January Gallup Poll (when "leaners" were included) shrank to 5 points in August. Their edge on the generic congressional ballot test has vanished, according to most national polls. For three years, Democrats enjoyed high single-digit or low double-digit leads on this question -- a very good indicator of which direction (and how hard) the political winds are blowing as a congressional election nears.

What we are seeing is an electorate growing just as disgusted with the Democratic majority as it did with the Republican one in 2006. The mounting ethics problems of House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel, D-N.Y., combined with ongoing allegations about House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee Chairman John Murtha, D-Pa., and others on his panel threaten to make matters still worse for their party.'

The poll results also match up with other polling, which consistently place the Republican brand within the statistical margin of error of the Democrats. In general Congress is strongly disfavored across the board. The running average reflected in the daily RCP average has consistently placed Congressional approval at -30 or lower for an extended period. Since January, no single poll has placed the Congressional approval at better than -15. This does not bode well for the 2010 election cycle. Looking at these results, it's doubtful that the Republicans can regain either the House or the Senate (after all, some of them are the bums that voters want to shed), but 29-37 House seats, and several Senate seats up for re-election (think Reid and Dodd), are vulnerable. We may end up with a deadlock in Congress starting next January, and that may be the best thing for the country. It would force bipartisanship to accomplish anything, and would push the President toward the centrality he campaigned on. Purple states (and voters) may lead the way next year.

Poll	Date				Approve			Disapprove		Spread
FOX News	9/15 - 9/16				27			64		-37
Associated Press/GfK	9/3 - 9/8				28			69		-41
Gallup	8/31 - 9/2				31			63		-32
CBS News	8/27 - 8/31				26			58		-32

See All Congressional Job Approval Polling Data