Memorial Day 2010

In Flanders Fields
John McCrae, 1915.

In Flanders fields the poppies blow
Between the crosses, row on row
That mark our place; and in the sky
The larks, still bravely singing, fly
Scarce heard amid the guns below.
We are the Dead. Short days ago
We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow,
Loved and were loved, and now we lie
In Flanders fields.

Take up our quarrel with the foe:
To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
If ye break faith with us who die
We shall not sleep, though poppies grow
In Flanders fields.

An excellent history of Memorial Day can be found here, and images from Arlington are here.

We spent our morning remembering friends and family at the local Veterans Memorial in Boca Raton.  I hope that wherever you are, you remembered those who have given all for their country.  Below are some images from today, and an expert from the self-published 'History and Rhymes of the Lost Battalion' by 'Buck Private' McCollum (a cousin of my father and survivor of the Lost Battalion in WWI).

Up There
'From two short words, "Up There" we glean,
All that war can really mean,
Sounds perhaps not much to you,
Entire volume, what we've been thru.
Telling many brave and daring tale,
Of Chateau-Thierry and the Vesle,
Of Argonne Woods, that death-strewn hell,
Where hordes of our brave comrades fell.
Who gave their all, as men have done
Ever since wars first begun,
Their blood enriching vale or hill,
Patriot's promise, or God's will.
They fell for a cause just and true,
Undying tribute is their due,
"God rest their souls," our humble prayer,
For all who gave their all - "Up There."'

Debt:GDP and the Future

(BMG: back from conferences and a short research trip, and returning to the blog for awhile; posting will be irregular through the end of June and will then pick up again).

According to the US National Debt Clock, the Debt to GDP ratio (converted to a percent of GDP) now exceeds 90%.  This is the largest Debt:GDP we have been at since the close of WWII and the largest ever peacetime ratio in our history.  The debt exceeded $13-trillion last week, and there is no sign that the rate of increase will slow anytime soon.  These values were projected by the CBO upon submission of the President's 2011 budget back in March, and are now exceeded even before the budget takes effect.  The dramatic increase in debt is accompanied by an aging population, and a subsequent decrease in government income regardless of any raises in tax rates.  To avoid following the path that southern and eastern Europe is now on, and which northern and western Europe may soon follow, a dramatic decrease in spending and services is necessary over the next five to ten years.

Those kind of tough decisions, however, are beyond this Congress and President (and beyond any for the previous thirty years).  'The End Game Draws Nigh,' an examination by Dr. Woody Brock of divergent paths to economic growth and slowing, places particular emphasis on macroeconomic trends in successful versus failed economic policies.  Most particularly, a high Debt:GDP value is a major indicator that a long-term economic slow-down is occurring or is imminent.  We can stick our head in the sand, but that will just leave our collective butt exposed.  We must demand tough decisions from our leaders, or we must find leaders who can make those decisions.  Without them, we're all going to be suffering for many more years.

Scientific Iliteracy on All Sides

Moving away from the normal foci of this blog, I've been struck over the last few weeks with how scientifically illiterate Americans in general are.  It's common for the left to accuse the right of being so, but there are plenty of examples of scientific illiteracy throughout the political spectrum.  For instance, in the last two weeks, there were these fine examples of complete ridiculousness:


And on the (normally, intelligently liberal) Diane Rehm show, News Roundup, this past Friday, Diane, her guests and a caller speculated that the recent earthquakes and volcanoes are caused by drilling, mining and climate change (there is some reason for believing that extreme climate change could cause crustal changes that could lead to earthquakes, but we're nowhere near the kind of warming yet that could trigger that kind of instability).

In this country, I suspect that much of the nonsense that is spewed by both the right and left is tied to the more general distrust that Americans have for authority in general.  But there is plenty of ridiculousness in supposedly educated Europe as well as around the world.  Global nonsense includes: outright conspiracy theories about genetically engineered crops, widespread claims that all ice packs will melt within thirty years or that they're not melting at all, evolutionary theory is a conspiracy to prop up or is able to prove there is no God, and on and on it goes.

Why is scientific illiteracy a problem?  Perhaps more to the point, we should ask why scientific literacy is important.  There are a number of arguments to present here, but a primary reason for caring about scientific literacy is economic; some of the top-paying fields are in health care and science (especially biotech.).  I would also argue that good citizenship requires some degree of scientific literacy; just think of how many times in the last twenty years there have been policy debates related to science.  And of course, we depend on good science for much of our daily life anymore (if you're reading this blog, then you're depending on scientific developments to do so!).  There are some valid reasons for distrust of scientists, but those should not be extended to distrust of all science.  Ultimately, good science relies not only on scientists maintaining integrity and ethics, but also requires a scientifically literate government and public to help keep them honest.  That relationship is difficult to maintain if one of the partners fails in their role.

Why ... Thank You Mr. President

I'm sure you've seen or heard this lovely quip from the president:

'After his speech at the Kennedy Space Center today, President Obama headed to Miami for a pair of fundraisers expected to bring in $2.5 million for the DNC. Speaking at one of those events, the president made a Tax Day defense of his administration's policies and claimed to be "amused" by the tea party rallies occurring nationwide today. From a pool report:

'On tax day, he show cases the tax cuts in the stimulus plan, other tax break, and refusal to raise taxes on people making less than $250,000 a year. "So I've been amused in recent days by these people having rallies," he said to laughter. "I think they should be saying thank you." Big applause, and calls of "Thank you" from the crowd."''

OK - I'll bite.

Thank you Mr. President for ...

1. Single-handedly reviving the Republican brand
2. Moving Independents back to conservative roots faster than anyone in history
3. Guaranteeing the downfall of Sen. Reid and numerous others
4. Possibly enabling the downfall of the odious Sen.-don't call me ma'am-Boxer

Shall I continue? I have a whole list of thank-yous Mr. President.

Oink, oink

Citizens Against Government Waste has released its annual Pig Book.  Rather depressing reading, although some of the earmarks are so strange they're funny.  The entire 2009 book may be found here.  Many of the projects for which the funds are appropriated are actually worth while; the problems are the means by which the funds were appropriated (often tacked on to wholly unrelated bills for instance, rather than subjecting them to normal budgetary debate), and the use of funds for specific projects where few jobs are generated and little use to the rest of the country can be found.  Rather than taking tax dollars from Florida and spending them on research into the uses of wool and wood in a few states (especially since these products have had developed uses for thousands of years), take fewer taxes from the states and allow them to utilize those funds as they see fit.  Or, if we just can't stand that, issue block grants to states based on population and economic factors to divvy up for state priorities.

Some of my favorites:

'$4,545,000 for wood utilization research in 10 states by 19 senators and 10 representatives. This research has cost taxpayers $95.3 million since 1985. One would think that after 24 years of research all the purposes for one of the world’s most basic construction materials would have been discovered.'

'$206,000 for wool research in three states (Montana, Texas, and Wyoming) by Reps. Mike Conaway (R-Texas) and Ciro Rodriguez (D-Texas). Since 1995, CAGW has uncovered 13 earmarks worth $3,417,453 for wool research, always in the same three states. While 47 states have figured out that wool can be best used to make a warm sweater, Montana, Texas, and Wyoming apparently are still trying to work out its practical utilizations.'

'$3,000,000 by Senate CJS Appropriations Subcommittee member Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.) and Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) for the University of North Dakota in Grand Forks to help make data received from NASA satellite images more accessible to the public. Apparently the two senators have not heard of NASA TV. According to the NASA website, “The NASA TV Public and Educational channels are ‘free-to-air,’ meaning your cable or satellite service provider can carry them at no cost.” Interested viewers should contact their local cable or satellite service provider to get NASA TV, and ask the senators for a rebate of their share of that $3 million.'

Shell Games

While awaiting FL-19's special election results, I thought I'd take a look at the WaMu testimony, and got distracted by this. The court-appointed examiner of the Lehman Brothers failure has reported back to the court that the investment house's directors did not breech their fiduciary responsibilities. Of greater interest however was this little gem:

'A 2,200-page report by a court-appointed examiner says executives of Lehman Brothers manipulated the now-defunct company's balance sheet, using a "materially misleading" accounting trick to temporarily remove $50 billion of troubled assets, The New York Times and The Washington Post report.

The examiner's report says that then-Lehman CEO Richard S. Fuld Jr. was "at least grossly negligent" and that the accounting firm Ernst & Young could be accused of professional malpractice.'

It turns out that Lehman used a shell to hide it's toxic assets, trading them for cash out of a small company it owned on the side. This maneuver allowed Lehman to improve the appearance of its books. WaMu's whining to Congress notwithstanding, it seems less and less certain that any of these firms deserved the rescues they received in 2008 & 2009.

FINAL UPDATES: Election Day Special on the Florida's Special Election

UPDATE 2: There will be no change in party affiliation for FL-19.  As of 8:56 PM, Ted Deutch has won by 64.75% to Lynch's 32.64% and McCormick's 2.55%.  A write-in candidate, Josue Larose obtained .06% of the total vote.  24,854 votes have been counted.  These numbers are not too likely to alter significantly since most precincts have reported in.  Where the national will move to in November remains a serious hobby of prognosticators.  One interesting facet of today's special election is that the voters get a 'try-out' period with the winner.  Because Wexler resigned mid-term, Deutch will serve until November, and must then win a regular election.  Depending on the mood of the electorate by that time, Lynch may get a second shot.  One potential indicator is the very low voter turnout, which was under 20% (strangely, the elections office considers this turnout to be high).

UPDATE 1: Voting has remained very light throughout the day, and may be exceeded in rate by the early and absentee voting.  Polls close at 7:00 PM.

Here in Florida's 19th Congressional District, we'll be electing a replacement for the unlamented Robert Wexler.  Ted Deutch is running for the Dems, Edward Lynch for the Republicans, and Jim McCormick is running as an independent under the People Before Party moniker.  McCormick may syphon off some votes from Lynch, which Deutch is no doubt counting on.  Despite a very limited budget and personal financial woes, the anger over Obamacare and the bailouts, in this reliably blue district, may propel Lynch to the forefront.  So far, voting appears relatively light throughout the county, and Lynch has the advantage of a healthy volunteer corps (driving throughout the county I've seen plenty of happy Lynch supporters and signs, but almost nothing for Deutch).  Lynch has also been relying on cheap and free media, and has a number of internet campaigns running under volunteer control.  Turning over the self-proclaimed 'fire-breathing liberal's' seat to a Republican would be quite a coup for conservatives, and a possible sign of a coming blood-bath in November.

Down in the Weeds

Following yesterday's brief post, on declining poll numbers for the president, Congress and the Democratic Party, here's a more detailed analysis.  Today's RCP Average for the president is -0.7.

And for your general entertainment, here's a science-based approach to international negotiations.

Down in Negative Territory

For the second time to date, and far more significantly than previously, President Obama's RCP average has dropped into negative territory.  Gallup, Rasmussen, Fox, and USA Today/Gallup are all negative.  The friendliest of the most recent polls to the President, The Marist (which typically has a high bias toward self-identified DNC responders) is down to it's lowest point; +3.  Today's RCP average is -1.2.  The best poll that is currently out of the average (their last poll closed 3/26) is the Washington Post poll (also significantly biased leftward) at +10.  This poll has been dropping more slowly than the others, but has also shown a significant decline over the last six months.  It will be interesting to see a snapshot in June, when the mid-cycle campaigns are in full swing.

The RCP average for Congressional Approval polling is also dismal (-56.5); Health Care is at +12 Oppose (52.4 oppose: 40.4 approve) and the Election 2010 polling is looking increasingly red.  It's going to be a long, hot summer.

Updates to Last Night's House Vote

The threat of having passed Deem and Pass through committee, combined with the Stupak deal, was enough to push the final vote on the initial Senate bill (HR 3590). The vote tally was 219:212, a three vote margin over what Pelosi needed for passage. The passage of the reconciliation measure quickly followed, and will be rapidly sent to the Senate. Sen. Reid states that he has the 51 votes necessary for passage of the reconciliation, but as mentioned here last night, Republicans are gearing up for a procedural fight. Republicans are allowed to offer unlimited amendments, each of which must be debated for instance. Additionally, the earlier ruling by the Senate Parliamentarian requires President Obama to sign in to law HR 3590, before signing the reconciliation bill, should it pass the Senate. That means that if the reconciliation bill is stalled, HR 3590 goes forward unimpeded, which is likely to anger members on both the left and right, not least because of the Stupak deal.

Whether or not the threats of appeal are grounded in reality (the president has another two years to work on his sales pitch), one thing seems increasingly likely - the Democrats have ensured a bloodbath come November.

Non-Vote Vote Rule Passed - House Voting on Senate Bill

The House has passed the rule allowing the 'deem and pass' measure to provide Democratic House members with cover from a recorded vote on the Senate HC bill, allowing it to move directly to a vote on a reconciliation package of 'fixes' to the Senate bill. These are required to deal strictly with budgetary matters, but of course one can word just about any measure in such a way as to make it about the budget. In the meanwhile, the president is expected to rapidly sign into law the Senate bill, and then to accept the reconciliation package later. Final votes were obtained after the president assured Rep. Stupak that he would issue a Presidential Executive order barring all federal funds from being used to obtain abortion.

'Just before taking the podium at a 4 p.m. news conference, the White House released the text of an executive order to be signed after the health care reform legislation is passed. It makes clear the president’s intention “to establish an adequate enforcement mechanism to ensure that federal funds are not used for abortion services” and continues the current prohibition on taxpayer money being used for abortions known as the Hyde amendment.'

The Republicans believe that there are several rules violations in the reconciliation package that would violate House rules, including an appropriation to fund a new agency to implement the "Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act," that does not fall under the auspices of the committees that wrote the Senate bill. It remains to be seen if these rules violations would amount to a negative ruling by the Senate Parlimentarian.

The Lines Have Crossed

For the first time in his presidency, and even more precipitously than Bill Clinton, President Obama's RCP average (a running average of major polls) has dropped into negative territory. The approve vs. disapprove lines have crossed, and he is down to -0.2.

President Obama Job Approval

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	Approve	Disapprove	Spread
RCP Average	3/3 - 3/18	--	47.5	47.7	-0.2
Gallup	3/16 - 3/18	1547 A	47	47	Tie
Rasmussen Reports	3/16 - 3/18	1500 LV	45	55	-10
FOX News	3/16 - 3/17	900 RV	46	48	-2
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl	3/11 - 3/14	1000 A	48	47	+1
Pew Research	3/10 - 3/14	1500 A	46	43	+3
Associated Press/GfK	3/3 - 3/8	1002 A	53	46	+7

See All President Obama Job Approval Polling Data

As the Los Angeles Times sarcastically noted, this dip could be due to many things, but is most likely connected to the president's obsession with passing a HC bill, any bill, by any means. Interestingly, the RCP Average will probably drop further tomorrow, after today's Gallup Poll results are included. The Gallup Poll reflected in today's RCP Average has an approval tie, but today's Gallup has the president down by -2.

Today's RCP Average also has the general Republican brand up to +1.6 over the Democrats. It looks more and more likely that November will bring a bloodbath.

Tomorrow: a closer look at the recent CBO scoring.

Seventy Years Later - Honoring the WASPs

They paid for their own pilot licenses, and when they died in the line of duty, for the transport of each other's bodies for burial. The Air Force refused to acknowledge or honor them properly, and forced them from their training positions, rather than let men with junior positions and fewer in-flight hours lose a position. They flew cargo, fighter planes, test planes, and moving gunnery targets. These women were the Women Airforce Service Pilots, and they were finally honored for their service today. Last year, the president signed into law a bill allowing the Congressional Gold Medal to be awarded to the surviving WASPs and the families of those who have died. Today, the women were on Capitol Hill to receive the awards. The WASPs were among the women who paved the way for all other women who have served in the military.

Thank you ladies - for courage, service and patience.

North Korea Thumps Its Chest

The little man in high heels, Kim Jong-Il, and the North Korean People's Army, have declared themselves ready to 'blow up' the United States and South Korea, after the opening of the annual joint defensive drills. This year's operational name is Key Resolve/Foal Eagle, and is somewhat scaled down from previous years, with only 18,000 US troops participating.

'The U.S. and South Korea argue the drills -- which include live firing by U.S. Marines, aerial attack drills and urban warfare training -- are purely defensive. North Korea claims they amount to attack preparations and has demanded they be canceled.

The North's People's Army issued a statement Monday, warning the drills created a tense situation and that its troops are "fully ready" to "blow up" the allies once the order is issued.

The North also put all its soldiers and reservists on high alert to "mercilessly crush the aggressors" should they encroach upon the North's territory even slightly, said the statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency.'

Pyongyang typically increases its defensive posture and ups its rhetoric in response to these drills. Although the spate of missile and nuclear testing over the past year make the threat somewhat more serious, North Korea has little ability to follow through on anything. It's soldiers may very well be more likely to ask for a good, hot meal at this point. While they are typically better fed than the average 'citizen,' the repeated halts to food aid this last year have left the entire country on the brink .

Results of Blair House: 0.1

Following the 'Blair House Summit' this past week, the president's RCP average has sunk to +0.1. The lines aren't just kissing, they're entangled. Any bets as to how long it will take for them to cross?

Congress is faring no better (-56.8), while Republicans continue to lead the generic vote polling (+1.1), and the sense of 'direction of the country' has sunk to -24.4. These results seem to be inextricably linked to the opposition to the health care bills, the average of which has risen to +11. The more these bills are explained, the less people like them.

Seriously? Fawning Reaches New Heights

Two wacked-out headlines:

1. From the NYT (of course): 'Gentle White House Nudges Test the Power of Persuasion'

'Tempers were fraying in the White House Cabinet Room as night turned into morning on Jan. 15. President Obama had been cloistered nearly all day with House and Senate Democrats, playing “marriage counselor,” an aide said, as he coaxed, cajoled and prodded them on a health care overhaul. As the clock neared 1 a.m., the two sides were at an impasse. Mr. Obama stood up.“ ‘See what you guys can figure out,’ ” one participant remembers him saying, adding that the failed effort left the president mad. Another Democrat who was there, Representative Henry A. Waxman of California, said Mr. Obama left “frustrated that while he was putting out ways to bridge the problem, we hadn’t reached a conclusion.” Ever since his days as a young community organizer in Chicago, Mr. Obama has held fast to the belief that by listening carefully and appealing to reason he can bring people together to get results, an approach that in Washington has often come up short.'

I fail to see how leaving in a snit, ordering others to figure things out, qualifies as gentle or persuasive.

2. From Fox News: 'NAACP to Honor Van Jones as 'American Treasure'
The title alone makes me think of the PBS ads for 'Antiques Roadshow' ("... well sir, you have a national treasure, a national treasure'), putting Van Jones on the level of a well-preserved textile.

'But Jones still has his share of outspoken supporters, and one of them is Benjamin Todd Jealous, president and CEO of the NAACP. "Van Jones is an American treasure," Jealous writes in an opinion piece posted at CNN.com. "He is quite simply one of the few Americans in recent years to have generated powerful new ideas that are creating new jobs."

Ahh - for that to work as an accolade, one would have to demonstrate that at least one job had been generated by these 'powerful new ideas' something I doubt Mr. Jealous (I had to write it) can prove.

Oh well - as least it's entertaining.

Transparency? Nah, Who Needs That?

Apparently having an Inspector General tasked with catching sticky little hands in the TARP cookie jar is too much government for the Obama Administration. At the end of January, the IG released its report on TARP, stating that it had failed to meet many objectives. Apparently that hit a little too close to home.

'While the administration has not yet finalized its legislative proposal for the $30 billion program, Allison indicated to Barofsky last week that his office would not have any oversight of the program. "I was surprised to learn from you Wednesday that Treasury is contemplating excluding SIGTARP from the oversight provisions of its legislative proposal concerning the Small Business Lending Fund, contrary to what you previously told us," Barofsky wrote in his letter to Allison. Only two weeks ago Allison had indicated to Barofsky that the watchdog would "expressly have jurisdiction over" the small business effort, but that all changed last week. The about-face, Barofsky said, was "a curious change". To exclude Barofsky's office from oversight, he warned, would be "contrary to the best interests of the taxpayer."'

This presents the same kind of Administrative thinking that allows the President to declare he wants an open, transparent, bipartisan dialogue on health care reform (live on Thursday), while simultaneously setting up to go the reconciliation route. One wonders how far the Congressional Democrats will let him go before refusing to be cannon fodder for a plan and way of thinking the public has rejected.

Iran Restricting Airspace Over A Word

Iran is pitching a hissy-fit over the commonly used commercial air term, 'Arabian Gulf,' threatening to ban airlines that fail to call the shared waterway the 'Persian Gulf.'

'"The airlines of the southern Persian Gulf countries flying to Iran are warned to use the term Persian Gulf on their electronic display boards," Road and Transport Minister Hamid Behbahani said in comments in the daily Iran newspaper. "Otherwise they will be banned from Iranian airspace for a month the first time and upon repetition their aircraft will be grounded in Iran and flight permits to Iran will be revoked," he added. .... Iran says it is the Persian Gulf, the Arab states say it is Arab. Foreign language descriptions can offend either party if they use one name or the other, or sometimes if they avoid an adjective altogether.'

Iran has long been touchy about transit through the Gulf, especially at the Strait of Hormuz, where they have occasionally harassed both military and commercial shipping. And of course, there are multiple stories of Iran 'extending' its claims to airspace. This latest dust-up became public after Iran expelled a Greek steward working on a Kish Air flight (Iran also claims he threatened unruly passengers protesting the use of 'Arabian Gulf' on the in-flight monitors). It's possible this tantrum is part of Iran's response to the recent decision by the Obama Administration to beef-up missile defense throughout the Gulf. The most recent deployments were of Aegis cruisers to the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait. These are in addition to the Patriot missile batteries installed under President Bush.

Farewell to Haig

Alexander Haig died this morning following a hospitalization for an infection. He was a fascinating, complex, colorful man with long and honorable military and civilian service records. RIP.

Dependency Agenda

H/T: TAH.