A Look At the Florida Senate Race

The new Weekly Standard has an interesting look at the Florida Senate race, with emphasis on the Rubio campaign.  As mentioned in the article, Rasmussen is currently the only poll showing Rubio up over Crist.  All of the polls show either Crist or Rubio winning easily over either Green or Meeks.

Double Dip ... Polling

President Obama's poll numbers have dipped back into negative territory (actually, they've been there for most of the prior two weeks) in a big way with today's polling numbers.  The RCP average puts him at -3.3.  Only the Time Magazine poll (never a bell-weather) has him in positive territory at +4, and Rasmussen has fallen to -12 (likely voter poll).  Congress continues it's slow fall into the abyss at almost -50, while the Republicans are up over the Dems at +3.3.  The RCP average for direction of the country is -28.7.  Finally, the major toss-up elections are started to lean Republican, including major seats (e.g.: Boxer and Reid).  With less than 100 days to the mid-term election, the Democrats are fast-approaching a decision-point: stick with Obama or resist to save their own skins.  It's going to be an interesting Fall.

"We Are Ready" (or not)

When Nancy Pelosi predicted that the Democrats would hold on to the House through 2012, there were understandable guffaws on both sides of the aisle.  Claiming that "we are ready ... and in the past when there [have] been these swings, it's been when people have not been ready," Pelosi seems to believe that readiness is enough.  I wonder what she'll make of the radical swing reflected in today's publication of Gallup's weekly polling, that gives Republicans a major jump to +6% over Democrats, the largest Republican margin ever recorded for Gallup. The enthusiasm gap between the two parties also continued to grow, indicating possible deep problems for Democrats get-out-the-vote drives.  The Gallup polling played a major role in once again flipping the RCP Generic Congressional Vote average to +0.8 for the Republicans (from +0.2 for the Democrats the day before).  Rasmussen's likely voter screen gives the Republicans a +7 average, while the Quinnipiac poll (last published May 26) give the Democrats +6.  The RCP Congressional Job Approval average is telling: -50.6, with all recent major polls giving Congress a -40 or greater.  Keep your head in the sand Nancy - it might improve your outlook.

Down in Negative Territory

For the second time to date, and far more significantly than previously, President Obama's RCP average has dropped into negative territory.  Gallup, Rasmussen, Fox, and USA Today/Gallup are all negative.  The friendliest of the most recent polls to the President, The Marist (which typically has a high bias toward self-identified DNC responders) is down to it's lowest point; +3.  Today's RCP average is -1.2.  The best poll that is currently out of the average (their last poll closed 3/26) is the Washington Post poll (also significantly biased leftward) at +10.  This poll has been dropping more slowly than the others, but has also shown a significant decline over the last six months.  It will be interesting to see a snapshot in June, when the mid-cycle campaigns are in full swing.

The RCP average for Congressional Approval polling is also dismal (-56.5); Health Care is at +12 Oppose (52.4 oppose: 40.4 approve) and the Election 2010 polling is looking increasingly red.  It's going to be a long, hot summer.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll of Likely Voters

Ouch!

From today's Rasmussen:

'The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows that 29% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-seven percent (37%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -8 (see trends). Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter is feeling the heat of the health care debate. He now trails Republican Pat Toomey by double digits in an early look at the potential 2010 race. Two months ago, Specter led by double digits. Most Pennsylvania voters oppose the Congressional health care reform effort. Also, Specter’s lead is shrinking in his Democratic Primary match-up with Congressman Joe Sestak. The Presidential Approval Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve. It is updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Updates also available on Twitter. Overall, 47% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance. That’s the lowest level of total approval yet recorded. The President’s ratings first fell below 50% just a few weeks ago on July 25. Fifty-two percent (52%) now disapprove. Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Republicans disapprove along with 65% of those not affiliated with either party. Seventy-eight percent (78%) of Democrats offer their approval. Most women (51%) offer their approval while most men (56%) disapprove. For more measures of the President's performance, see Obama By the Numbers and recent demographic highlights from the tracking polls.'