"We Are Ready" (or not)

When Nancy Pelosi predicted that the Democrats would hold on to the House through 2012, there were understandable guffaws on both sides of the aisle.  Claiming that "we are ready ... and in the past when there [have] been these swings, it's been when people have not been ready," Pelosi seems to believe that readiness is enough.  I wonder what she'll make of the radical swing reflected in today's publication of Gallup's weekly polling, that gives Republicans a major jump to +6% over Democrats, the largest Republican margin ever recorded for Gallup. The enthusiasm gap between the two parties also continued to grow, indicating possible deep problems for Democrats get-out-the-vote drives.  The Gallup polling played a major role in once again flipping the RCP Generic Congressional Vote average to +0.8 for the Republicans (from +0.2 for the Democrats the day before).  Rasmussen's likely voter screen gives the Republicans a +7 average, while the Quinnipiac poll (last published May 26) give the Democrats +6.  The RCP Congressional Job Approval average is telling: -50.6, with all recent major polls giving Congress a -40 or greater.  Keep your head in the sand Nancy - it might improve your outlook.

Down in Negative Territory

For the second time to date, and far more significantly than previously, President Obama's RCP average has dropped into negative territory.  Gallup, Rasmussen, Fox, and USA Today/Gallup are all negative.  The friendliest of the most recent polls to the President, The Marist (which typically has a high bias toward self-identified DNC responders) is down to it's lowest point; +3.  Today's RCP average is -1.2.  The best poll that is currently out of the average (their last poll closed 3/26) is the Washington Post poll (also significantly biased leftward) at +10.  This poll has been dropping more slowly than the others, but has also shown a significant decline over the last six months.  It will be interesting to see a snapshot in June, when the mid-cycle campaigns are in full swing.

The RCP average for Congressional Approval polling is also dismal (-56.5); Health Care is at +12 Oppose (52.4 oppose: 40.4 approve) and the Election 2010 polling is looking increasingly red.  It's going to be a long, hot summer.

The Lines Have Crossed

For the first time in his presidency, and even more precipitously than Bill Clinton, President Obama's RCP average (a running average of major polls) has dropped into negative territory. The approve vs. disapprove lines have crossed, and he is down to -0.2.

President Obama Job Approval

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	Approve	Disapprove	Spread
RCP Average	3/3 - 3/18	--	47.5	47.7	-0.2
Gallup	3/16 - 3/18	1547 A	47	47	Tie
Rasmussen Reports	3/16 - 3/18	1500 LV	45	55	-10
FOX News	3/16 - 3/17	900 RV	46	48	-2
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl	3/11 - 3/14	1000 A	48	47	+1
Pew Research	3/10 - 3/14	1500 A	46	43	+3
Associated Press/GfK	3/3 - 3/8	1002 A	53	46	+7

See All President Obama Job Approval Polling Data

As the Los Angeles Times sarcastically noted, this dip could be due to many things, but is most likely connected to the president's obsession with passing a HC bill, any bill, by any means. Interestingly, the RCP Average will probably drop further tomorrow, after today's Gallup Poll results are included. The Gallup Poll reflected in today's RCP Average has an approval tie, but today's Gallup has the president down by -2.

Today's RCP Average also has the general Republican brand up to +1.6 over the Democrats. It looks more and more likely that November will bring a bloodbath.

Tomorrow: a closer look at the recent CBO scoring.

Post-Afghan Speech Job-Approval Polling

President Obama's polling numbers, following the speech on revisions to the Afghanistan policy, have continued on a downward trend. RCP noted that the Gallup poll had an unusual drop of four points overnight.

'Obama suffered a net four point loss of support overnight - a noticeably sharp decline for a tracking poll that usually doesn't move more than a point or two in either direction on any given day.'

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	Approve	Disapprove	Spread
RCP Average	11/12 - 12/6	--	49.0	45.1	+3.9
Gallup	12/4 - 12/6	1547 A	47	46	+1
Rasmussen Reports	12/4 - 12/6	1500 LV	49	50	-1
CNN/Opinion Research	12/2 - 12/3	1041 A	48	50	-2
USA Today/Gallup	11/20 - 11/22	1017 A	50	44	+6
FOX News	11/17 - 11/18	900 RV	46	46	Tie
CBS News	11/13 - 11/16	1167 A	53	36	+17
Democracy Corps (D)	11/12 - 11/16	1000 RV	50	44	+6

See All President Obama Job Approval Polling Data

These polling changes are largely meaningless to the Presidency at this point in time, and similar results only forced President Clinton to re-tool his agenda, pushing him closer to the center than he might otherwise have been. To many in Congress, however, these numbers have got to be troubling. Harry Reid continues to sound increasingly desperate, while his own poll numbers have taken a long, slow dive. Generic Congressional polls place Republicans within 0.4 points of Democrats, while 58.2% (as an average of multiple polls) state that the country is headed in the wrong direction. In general, these are not the numbers to make the Democratic Party happy, and may signal a trend back toward the center.