North Korea Thumps Its Chest

The little man in high heels, Kim Jong-Il, and the North Korean People's Army, have declared themselves ready to 'blow up' the United States and South Korea, after the opening of the annual joint defensive drills. This year's operational name is Key Resolve/Foal Eagle, and is somewhat scaled down from previous years, with only 18,000 US troops participating.

'The U.S. and South Korea argue the drills -- which include live firing by U.S. Marines, aerial attack drills and urban warfare training -- are purely defensive. North Korea claims they amount to attack preparations and has demanded they be canceled.

The North's People's Army issued a statement Monday, warning the drills created a tense situation and that its troops are "fully ready" to "blow up" the allies once the order is issued.

The North also put all its soldiers and reservists on high alert to "mercilessly crush the aggressors" should they encroach upon the North's territory even slightly, said the statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency.'

Pyongyang typically increases its defensive posture and ups its rhetoric in response to these drills. Although the spate of missile and nuclear testing over the past year make the threat somewhat more serious, North Korea has little ability to follow through on anything. It's soldiers may very well be more likely to ask for a good, hot meal at this point. While they are typically better fed than the average 'citizen,' the repeated halts to food aid this last year have left the entire country on the brink .

The North Korean Fog

The fog of confusion surrounding North Korea's actions thickened over the previous week, beginning with the show trial of the two American journalists, Laura Ling and Euna Lee.  The North Korean court (wholly government-controlled) sentenced the two women to twelve years in a forced-labor camp for unspecified 'hostile acts,' which apparently included straying over the border into North Korea itself.  These camps have been documented in the past, and include the kind of conditions found in the worst of the old Soviet gulag system.  Speculation is rampant among the talking heads that the women won't actually be sent to a camp, as long as the North Koreans feel they can use the two as a bargaining chip to exact concessions from the US.  Interestingly, the journalists were there to report on the growing cross-border trafficking in female sex slaves by the North Korean government.  (I say growing because several family members and friends are involved in trying to liberate women and children who are trafficked, and have been documenting the growing influence of the North Koreans in this vile trade.  If you're interested in an in-depth examination of this issue, check out the book Terrify No More (Gary Haugen and Gregg Hunter)).

Last month's test of a nuclear weapon, and the ongoing missile tests, have dramatically upped the tension over North Korea's intentions and objectives.  Speculation here in the US has centered around the possibility that President Obama will have his hand forced, and will back down from cutting the missile defense program (particularly in Alaska), and if we will begin intedicting North Korean vessels.  Yesterday, the Korean Central News Agency declared that North Korea would take such an interdiction as an act of war, and would consider a nuclear retaliation.  Presumably, this threat is directed against Seoul, which has recently backed the idea of ship inspections.  Simultaneously, North Korea is preparing for a test of its long-range missile, and two medium-range missiles.  Finally, while Kim Jong-Il may want his youngest son (Kim Jong-un) to be his succesor as the 'Dear Leader,' it's far from clear that the military and governmental apparatus will accept this appointment or will let Jong-un rule as completely as his father and grandfather.

One thing is clear: we don't know what North Korea wants or how it will act.

North Korea Prepping Two Additional Missile Tests

North Korea is apparently preparing to launch two new missile tests, one of a mid-range missile, and the second of it's long range missile (technically capable of reaching the US, but they've had repeated difficulties even getting the missile to reach apogee) from their western border at Dongchang-ri. Additionally: 'The reclusive communist country was showing other signs of belligerence. Reports say that over the past several days, the North has strengthened its defenses and conducted amphibious assault exercises along its western shore that could be preparations for skirmishes at sea.' Both South and North Korea have been anteing-up lately, with increase drills as well as a heating up of the rhetoric (the latter primarily on the North Korean side). South Korea and Japan now seem open to search and seizure operations of North Korean vessels suspected of carrying nuclear material or components necessary for processing of material, and North Korea appears to be deliberately provoking instability.

The AP reports that Susan Rice (the US envoy to the UN) claims: 'At the United Nations, US envoy Susan Rice said there had been movement in talks with her counterparts from Britain, China, France, Russia, Japan and South Korea when they met Monday to thrash out a draft resolution imposing tougher sanctions on the isolated regime.' However, the NYT reports that Russia and China are seeking delay the implementation of further sanctions. 'The United States circulated a softened draft resolution to the Security Council in response to North Korea’s assertion that it conducted a nuclear test on Monday. The United States pressed for a vote by Friday, but China and Russia immediately signaled their opposition to critical parts of the measure and said they needed more time. On Thursday night, a new draft resolution was circulated, and Reuters quoted the Chinese and Russian ambassadors calling the revisions improvements.' This all comes in the context of Kim Jong-Il's apparent appointment of his son, Kim Jong-un, as successor (discussed in yesterday's blog), and the move to try two US journalists for espionage.

Whatever the outcome of the action at the UN (I continue to doubt that body capable of much if any action), it's clear that Kim Jong-Il wants to ensure that he is receiving attention and is feared, in his own country and region and abroad.

The New Dear Leader?

The BBC and several other media sources are reporting that Kim Jong-Il has chosen his successor. And the winner is ... Kim Jong-un. This is his youngest son, and reportedly the one who most resembles his father. Kim Jong-un is relatively young, and speculation revolves around the possibility that the nuclear and subsequent missile tests of the last two weeks stems from Jong-Il's attempt to secure power and homage for his son in a culture that traditionally respects age and seniority. Reported changes in senior positions may provide evidence for that hypothesis.

Time Magazine published this fascinating little interview with Kim Jong-Il's former sister-in-law, Sung Hae Rang, who fled North Korea, and lives in an undisclosed location fearful of reprisals. The interview provides a glimpse of the total insularity and sense of divinity with which Kim Jong-un has been raised. The Telegraph has a short profile comprised of short tidbits about the 'Prince,' but in truth very little is known about the new 'Dear Leader-in-waiting.'