Iran Dithering Over Proposals

While Iran is permitting inspections of the recently -revealed nuclear processing site, near Qom, to go forward, it is by no means certain that it will accept the proposed deal to allow France and Russia to finalize fuel processing. The proposal would ship, either in stages or in bulk, all of Iran's nuclear fuel to Russia and France for final reprocessing. The two countries would ensure that fuel was processed only to the extent required for nuclear medicine. Major concerns about the ability of Iran to either hide reprocessing or to simply continue processing unshipped material (in the case of piecemeal shipments) abound. France has warned that Iran does not seem to be bargaining in good faith, and that it will drag the negotiations out until the process is meaningless. This was born out last week by Iran's decision to postpone a decision. Also of concern is Russia's on-again, off-again bargaining with Iran to directly ship uranium to the country. Whether or not Russian can be relied upon as a partner in this process remains to be seen.

President Obama has stated that Iran is 'on notice to comply' with the plant inspections and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. This kind of 'bold' rhetoric has yet to produce results in North Korea, Pakistan or really any country the President has put on notice. It's doubtful that Iran will take much notice of the warnings without some real consequences on the table. France openly scoffed at this language during the G-20 summit, and Russia declared it unhelpful. President Sarkozy seems to have backed off some vis/vis President Obama, holding a telephone conversation yesterday with Obama on Iran, but continues to predict that direct actions (either through strengthened sanctions or turning a blind eye to Israeli action) may be necessary.

North Korea Prepping Two Additional Missile Tests

North Korea is apparently preparing to launch two new missile tests, one of a mid-range missile, and the second of it's long range missile (technically capable of reaching the US, but they've had repeated difficulties even getting the missile to reach apogee) from their western border at Dongchang-ri. Additionally: 'The reclusive communist country was showing other signs of belligerence. Reports say that over the past several days, the North has strengthened its defenses and conducted amphibious assault exercises along its western shore that could be preparations for skirmishes at sea.' Both South and North Korea have been anteing-up lately, with increase drills as well as a heating up of the rhetoric (the latter primarily on the North Korean side). South Korea and Japan now seem open to search and seizure operations of North Korean vessels suspected of carrying nuclear material or components necessary for processing of material, and North Korea appears to be deliberately provoking instability.

The AP reports that Susan Rice (the US envoy to the UN) claims: 'At the United Nations, US envoy Susan Rice said there had been movement in talks with her counterparts from Britain, China, France, Russia, Japan and South Korea when they met Monday to thrash out a draft resolution imposing tougher sanctions on the isolated regime.' However, the NYT reports that Russia and China are seeking delay the implementation of further sanctions. 'The United States circulated a softened draft resolution to the Security Council in response to North Korea’s assertion that it conducted a nuclear test on Monday. The United States pressed for a vote by Friday, but China and Russia immediately signaled their opposition to critical parts of the measure and said they needed more time. On Thursday night, a new draft resolution was circulated, and Reuters quoted the Chinese and Russian ambassadors calling the revisions improvements.' This all comes in the context of Kim Jong-Il's apparent appointment of his son, Kim Jong-un, as successor (discussed in yesterday's blog), and the move to try two US journalists for espionage.

Whatever the outcome of the action at the UN (I continue to doubt that body capable of much if any action), it's clear that Kim Jong-Il wants to ensure that he is receiving attention and is feared, in his own country and region and abroad.

UPDATE: Washington Will Do Something (or other)!

Update 1: How much do you want to bet that North Korea actually means its threat to take 'strong action' should the UN dare to sanction it.

As predicted here and elsewhere, when N. Korea fired off an ICBM test disguised as a satellite launch over the weekend, we and Japan demanded that the UN security conference do something. Just as predictably, China and Russia flipped us the bird. It really doesn't even matter if this launch was an actual failure, if there really was a satellite in the nose cone, or if Kim Jong Il had succeeded in playing revolutionary songs from space. The UN will do nothing, and the words of these agreements mean nothing without action to back them up. President Obama can give 'strong' speeches all he wants - it changes nothing. If our only response to proliferation is to say that we need to cut our weapons (a laudable goal to be sure, but irrelevant to N. Korea), and that we won't really do anything, than N. Korea has no incentives to change its behavior.

Watch out, Ukraine

Ukraine and the other Western-leaning former Soviet-bloc countries better watch their collective backs: http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/europe/02/04/russia.collective.military/index.html?eref=rss_topstories

Debate Comment 2: Sitting and talking

Sen. McCain questioned Sen. Obama's statement in two debates during the primary season that he would sit and meet with Iran, Venezuela, etc. without pre-condition. Sen. Obama essentially said that was he meant was 'preparation,' and then went on to claim that Sec. Kissinger recommended the same policy. Sen. McCain corrected Sen. Obama, stating that Sec. Kissinger would never recommend Presidential talks without precondition, only Ambassadorial-level talks. Sen. Obama then said, "of course." Sen. McCain then made it clear how much more knowledgeable he is on security and international relations when they moved on to Russia. Sen. Obama said we should make sure that both Georgia and Russia didn't act extremely, and that he would tell Russia not to act that way. When he essentially gave the same response for dealing with Iran, Sen. McCain replied with a - "please!" McCain laid out geography of the Georgian pipeline and port that Russia was really after, and the stakes in Iran, repeatedly going after Obama's naivete. Sen. Obama ended up claiming he's the one who warned Pres. Bush that Russian 'peacekeepers' were on the ground in Georgia last Spring. As Sen. McCain said: please!