Return of the Axis of Evil?

Yup, this will stop 'em in their tracks:

'The leaders of South Korea and the United States told North Korea to drop its atomic ambitions and stop threatening the region while media reports on Wednesday said Pyongyang was moving ahead with plans to launch a long-range missile. After a summit with South Korean President Lee Myung-bak in Washington on Tuesday, U.S. President Barack Obama said a nuclear-armed North Korea would pose a "grave threat" to the world. He vowed new U.N. sanctions imposed for North Korea's May 25 nuclear test would be strictly enforced.'

The only sanctions we can strictly enforce are our own.  We can do force other nations to abide by the sanctions, much less enforce them.  And there has been ample evidence that North Korea has and will continue to trade nuclear material, including to Iran and Syria. 

'"A U.S. spy satellite spotted a special ICBM transport train moving from the manufacturing plant (near Pyongyang) to the Musudan-ri test site and staying there for a few days before returning," it quoted a government source as saying.'

Sounds familiar, no?  Meanwhile, Secretary Gates has vowed that the US '..."will not accept" a nuclear-armed North Korea as new intelligence data showed that the secretive state was preparing a fresh missile launch, which could take place in two weeks' time. ... In his speech in Singapore, Gates warned that America would hold Pyongyang "fully accountable" for the proliferation of any nuclear material or technology. "The transfer of nuclear weapons or material by North Korea to states or non-state entities would be considered a grave threat to the US and our allies. And we would hold North Korea fully accountable," Gates said. However, co-ordinating an effective international diplomatic response to North Korea has not been easy. Russia and China have stymied efforts to isolate the country at the UN, preventing a united front to condemn the country's nuclear ambitions.'

Apparently, we will 'not accept' North Korea's belligerence, but neither the EU nor we will do anything but 'dialogue' with Iran over its nuclear ambitions.  This is not to advocate direct action in Iran, but given the Iran has purchased material from North Korea (and has had invited observers at, and received data from, nuclear and missile tests in North Korea), and seems increasingly willing to defy all agreements on the use of that material, 'dialogue' seems a rather anemic response.  In January 2007, the Telegraph noted:

'North Korea and Iran are both countries driven by the bizarre regional ambitions of their rogue leaders, whose global isolation propels them into what appears to be absurd posturing and gratuitous confrontation. But however nihilistic and ultimately futile their actions may appear to Western interests, they represent a strategic confederation of malcontents whose tactics will have to be addressed with resolution of purpose.'

Meanwhile, Iran is dealing with major heartburn over continued protests of its election, about which our president has strangely been struck mute.  We don't yet know if these protests speak against President Obama's desire for peace through diplomacy rather than the promotion of democracy.  Right now Iran has neither peace nor democracy and conciliation hasn't worked to date, despite claims to the contrary.

Whether Ahmadinejad retains his hold on the presidency, neither the EU nor we have much influence in Iran, and we will still have the problem of dealing with the nuclear ambitions of both North Korea and Iran.  It's possible that despite all the [somewhat justified] mockery of the term, we are indeed facing the return of the 'axis of evil.'

North Korea Prepping Two Additional Missile Tests

North Korea is apparently preparing to launch two new missile tests, one of a mid-range missile, and the second of it's long range missile (technically capable of reaching the US, but they've had repeated difficulties even getting the missile to reach apogee) from their western border at Dongchang-ri. Additionally: 'The reclusive communist country was showing other signs of belligerence. Reports say that over the past several days, the North has strengthened its defenses and conducted amphibious assault exercises along its western shore that could be preparations for skirmishes at sea.' Both South and North Korea have been anteing-up lately, with increase drills as well as a heating up of the rhetoric (the latter primarily on the North Korean side). South Korea and Japan now seem open to search and seizure operations of North Korean vessels suspected of carrying nuclear material or components necessary for processing of material, and North Korea appears to be deliberately provoking instability.

The AP reports that Susan Rice (the US envoy to the UN) claims: 'At the United Nations, US envoy Susan Rice said there had been movement in talks with her counterparts from Britain, China, France, Russia, Japan and South Korea when they met Monday to thrash out a draft resolution imposing tougher sanctions on the isolated regime.' However, the NYT reports that Russia and China are seeking delay the implementation of further sanctions. 'The United States circulated a softened draft resolution to the Security Council in response to North Korea’s assertion that it conducted a nuclear test on Monday. The United States pressed for a vote by Friday, but China and Russia immediately signaled their opposition to critical parts of the measure and said they needed more time. On Thursday night, a new draft resolution was circulated, and Reuters quoted the Chinese and Russian ambassadors calling the revisions improvements.' This all comes in the context of Kim Jong-Il's apparent appointment of his son, Kim Jong-un, as successor (discussed in yesterday's blog), and the move to try two US journalists for espionage.

Whatever the outcome of the action at the UN (I continue to doubt that body capable of much if any action), it's clear that Kim Jong-Il wants to ensure that he is receiving attention and is feared, in his own country and region and abroad.

North Korea Conducts Underground Nuclear Test

Following a localized earthquake, North Korea has followed up on its threat to conduct its first nuclear test since 2006. The US, S. Korea and China have all confirmed that they believe this to be a genuine test, and the S. Korean President and cabinet has entered a closed-door emergency session in response.

Anyone want to bet on what the UN will do? My guess is that it'll sit there holding on to a limp member wondering what's for lunch.