11 May 2009

Oh, is that all? - a $1.84 trillion deficit

The White House prediction for the deficit is growth to $1.84 trillion. The LA Times reports:
'The projected deficit for 2012 stands at $557 billion in the new report, which still will represent a larger dollar figure than any deficit the former administration projected in setting its own records during the eight years of George W. Bush's presidency. The new record deficit this year -- driven by the federal government's efforts at bailing out financial institutions and automakers, the $787-billion economic stimulus act that Congress approved one month into Obama's term and slumping federal tax revenue -- will amount to 12.9% of the nation's Gross Domestic Product.'

Of course these numbers are significantly higher than originally predicted by the Obama Administration, and much higher than any other administration including the final Bush term. For crying out loud, a deficit equivalent to 12.9% GDP, and they think they'll fix it by the end of the term? What fantasy land are they living in? And of course, these are the rosy predictions by the WH-OMB. Other, somewhat more sober, analyses place the deficit much higher.

The Congressional Budget Office predicts that the economy will not recover at the pace that the OMB predicts, and that the massive growth in spending will consume any recovery that does occur for quite some time. In fact, the CBO's predictions look downright gloomy next to those of the OMB. The CBO Director's blog does a nice job of summarizing their outlook, and is worth reading in full, but the this morning's report ('Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2009 to 2019') gives the full details. A small snapshot encapsulating surplus vs/vs deficit is at right (click to enlarge). Not a pretty picture.


  1. Isn't that just unreal? heh Good post

  2. Oh, if only it were unreal! Thanks for the boost.


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