The Color Purple

Resurgent Republic has published the results of an extensive polling of self-identified Independent voters, with an eye to the 2010 elections. As has been evidenced in a number of recent polls, these voters (who are often the determining factor in national election cycles) still like President Obama, and generally support him. Support for specific policies however, is steadily slipping, particularly as pertains to fiscal policies.
The most intriguing results related to questions about support for Congress that were aimed at predicting outcomes in the 2010 Congressional election cycle. Here, Independents are generally united - they want to throw the bums out. Charlie Cook writes about these results in the National Journal Magazine.

'A whopping 48 of those Democrats -- eight more than the size of their party's majority -- are from districts that voted for both Bush and McCain. That America is very different from the Democratic base in blue America, and it sees many major issues very differently.

Resurgent Republic's findings corroborate a growing view that the cumulative impact of Democratic missteps has reached a critical mass, with Obama receiving some damage and with Democrats in Congress and the Democratic Party receiving much more. Critics point to the Troubled Asset Relief Program; the takeovers of banks and auto companies; an economic stimulus package that they see as ineffectual and stuffed with pork; and climate-change and health care reform efforts as all being contributing factors to Democrats' decline.

The 17-point advantage that Democrats enjoyed in the January Gallup Poll (when "leaners" were included) shrank to 5 points in August. Their edge on the generic congressional ballot test has vanished, according to most national polls. For three years, Democrats enjoyed high single-digit or low double-digit leads on this question -- a very good indicator of which direction (and how hard) the political winds are blowing as a congressional election nears.

What we are seeing is an electorate growing just as disgusted with the Democratic majority as it did with the Republican one in 2006. The mounting ethics problems of House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel, D-N.Y., combined with ongoing allegations about House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee Chairman John Murtha, D-Pa., and others on his panel threaten to make matters still worse for their party.'

The poll results also match up with other polling, which consistently place the Republican brand within the statistical margin of error of the Democrats. In general Congress is strongly disfavored across the board. The running average reflected in the daily RCP average has consistently placed Congressional approval at -30 or lower for an extended period. Since January, no single poll has placed the Congressional approval at better than -15. This does not bode well for the 2010 election cycle. Looking at these results, it's doubtful that the Republicans can regain either the House or the Senate (after all, some of them are the bums that voters want to shed), but 29-37 House seats, and several Senate seats up for re-election (think Reid and Dodd), are vulnerable. We may end up with a deadlock in Congress starting next January, and that may be the best thing for the country. It would force bipartisanship to accomplish anything, and would push the President toward the centrality he campaigned on. Purple states (and voters) may lead the way next year.

Poll	Date				Approve			Disapprove		Spread
FOX News	9/15 - 9/16				27			64		-37
Associated Press/GfK	9/3 - 9/8				28			69		-41
Gallup	8/31 - 9/2				31			63		-32
CBS News	8/27 - 8/31				26			58		-32

See All Congressional Job Approval Polling Data

President Obama overstepping his leagal authority? - How can that be?!

Even the corrupt Sen. Dodd is expressing consternation and confusion about the legal authority under which the Administration is acting with respect to the auto industry. The TARP legislation was specifically designed to make funds available to financial institutions, but as with last year's auto bailout, the Obama Administration wants to use those funds for GM and possibly Chrysler. While the Administration will undoubtedly make the same arguments advanced by President Bush (that the Treasury Secretary has broad discretion and that the auto industry has its own lending institutions that qualify), both the Democratic and Republican Congressional leadership seems uneasy about the power grab. I wrote about this the other day, but it does seem that the President and his Administration are intent on imposing their will on the private sector. Rep. Frank is helping them along with his proposal to dictate compensation packages for all employees of any institution receiving federal assistance. I love the new NBC show, Kings, but this is taking the whole life imitating art thing too far.

But, too cheer us all up, Fox Nation has provided us with a new music video to accompany tea party coverage. It's a lot of fun, so link over (I'll upload when Blogger stop freaking out on me) and enjoy.

The bribery of Sen. Dodd

The Washington Times has published an article that walks right up to the line of accusing Sen. Dodd of outright bribery and corruption. According to the article:

'As Democrats prepared to take control of Congress after the 2006 elections, a top boss at the insurance giant American International Group Inc. told colleagues that Sen. Christopher J. Dodd was seeking re-election donations and he implored company executives and their spouses to give.
The message in the Nov. 17, 2006, e-mail from Joseph Cassano, AIG Financial Products chief executive, was unmistakable: Mr. Dodd was "next in line" to be chairman of the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, which oversees the insurance industry, and he would "have the opportunity to set the committee's agenda on issues critical to the financial services industry.
Now, two years later, Mr. Dodd has emerged as a central figure in the government's decision to let executives at the now-failing AIG collect more than $218 million in bonuses, according to the Connecticut attorney general - even as the company was receiving billions of dollars in assistance from the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). He acknowledged that he slipped a provision into legislation in February that authorized the bonuses, but said the Treasury Department asked him to do it.'

Sounds like bribery to me. Of course, Dodd blames the whole mess on the hapless Treasury Secretary and Larry Summers. Barney Frank likes to say that the AIG executives took bribes by accepting their bonuses. That's rich coming from Frank, who took large amounts from Fannie, Freddie and AIG, but if one accepts it on its face, then demanding re-election funds surely qualifies as a bribe.

UPDATE 2: Another Day, Another Market Tumble

All three major US stock indicators (Dow, NASDAQ, S&P) are down again, the Dow sliding to levels below those seen after the tech/internet-bubble blew.

It seems every time President Obama, Sen. Dodd, Sen. Reid, Rep. Pelosi or any of the President's economic team speaks about the economy, the markets slide even further. Maybe they should just be quiet.

Meanwhile, the President insists he can cut the deficit in half by the end of his first term (talk about optimism), and is set for a third shot at the Secretary of Commerce with Gov. Locke of Washington State. He also managed to add on to his growing list of promises yet to be fulfilled, by promising that states would receive the first portion of the stimulus bill by the end of this week.

So, we're going to spend a ton of money on untested programs, most of which have nothing to do with stimulating anything except re-election campaigns, starting this week. Why would would any of us be surprised that the markets are reacting badly?

UPDATE 1: Reuters calls it like it is: the grand-standing today on the debt was an "all day talk fest."

UPDATE 2: Fox News is reporting that a good many of those at today's Fiscal Responsibility Summit were representing various special interests, none of which are more interested in fiscal responsibility than in promoting their own interests. The transparency pledge takes yet another hit.